NFL Calculators · deterministic · live over MCP since 2026-08-07

Deterministic football calculators. Pup

Pure functions; inputs stay in this browser; every result names the assumption it uses. All ten are contract-tested and live over MCP. They moved here from The DawgHouse on 2026-08-09. Deterministic and contract-tested is not prospectively graded, so no collar is claimed.

No oracle lives here. Calculator output is arithmetic or explicitly MODELLED. A probability you type in is your input, not something these calculators discovered, and nothing on this page has established betting profitability.

Calculators

Pure functions. Inputs stay in this browser. Every result names the assumption it uses.

deterministic · no upload
public contracts

Odds converter

American price → decimal odds + raw implied probability.

Parlay calculator

Compounds prices. It does not claim the legs are independent.

Not modelled: correlation, limits, rejected legs or price movement.

Hold / vig calculator

Two-way raw implied probabilities and proportional devig.

Probability / EV

Your declared win probability against a price.

The probability is an input, not something this calculator discovered.

Hedge calculator

Sizes the opposite side to equalize the two net outcomes.

Arithmetic, not advice. Ignores limits, tax and execution risk.

NFL passer rating

The public deterministic passer-rating formula—not QBR and not a forecast.

538 Classic Elo · one game

MIT benchmark mathematics: logistic Elo probability with the original 65-Elo HFA default.

The one-game calculator is deterministic. The dated 2026 state and ungraded prospective forecasts are published at /data/538-classic.json.

Win % → expected margin / cover

Independent Data Dawgs normal-margin approximation using the published 13.18-point residual SD.

MODELLED: win-probability inversion uses the site’s published 0.5-point win threshold. Cover uses sportsbook line convention and a continuous normal distribution with zero push mass. No injuries, weather, byes or NFL key-number mass.

Forecast grader

Brier score and log loss for one declared probability.

n=1. One score is not validation and earns no grade.

Belief summary / disagreement lab

Equal-weight descriptive statistics for any declared probability list.

Equal weight only. This is not a validated consensus blend, opaque score, or claim that greater spread predicts error.

The same calculators for machines

Assistants should call the Worker tools or read the contracts, not scrape the forms above.

  • /data/model-contracts.json — normalized forecast, receipt and calculator contracts; the calculator I/O contracts are the ones these forms implement.
  • dd_elo_game, dd_translate_probability, dd_convert_odds, dd_devig_market, dd_price_parlay, dd_calculate_bet_ev, dd_calculate_hedge, dd_nfl_passer_rating, dd_score_forecast and dd_summarize_beliefs — live, read-only Worker tools for deterministic calculations over caller-supplied inputs.

The AI explains these outputs. It does not invent the underlying number, fill nulls or promote an ungraded tool.