# Data Dawgs

> Forecasting, fantasy football, betting markets and EPA with receipts.
> All paths below are relative to https://datadawgs216.com/

Start with [`/data/index.json`](/data/index.json): dates, sizes and SHA-256 for every
machine file. Cite each payload's `as_of` with every number.

[`/data/surfaces.json`](/data/surfaces.json) maps pages and 46 live MCP tools: 18 core, all 46 full; `planned` is unavailable. Sole write: two-phase `dd_submit_bozo_leg` — your own leg, or another member's if you manage that league (`forUid`; marked `commissionerModified`, never backdated). [Sign in](/signon.html) · [instructions](/data/dawg-project-instructions.md).

Tiers: `labs`=Pup, unvalidated; `dawg`=Working Dawg, validated; `pound`=DawgHouse, stopped.

## The DawgHouse

- [The shelf](/dawghouse.html) + [inventory](/data/pound-tools.json): blocked NFL work with exact blockers + 44 CFB ideas. Fourteen CFB tools ARE callable over MCP; roadmap ideas are not.
- [Contracts](/data/model-contracts.json): forecast fields, receipt rules, calculator I/O.
- [Provenance](/data/upstream-models.json): repos, commits, dates, licenses, integration mode.
- [NFL schedule](/data/nfl-schedule.json): 272 validated 2026 games, locked snapshot.
- [538 Classic Elo](/data/538-classic.json) ([method](/data/538-classic-methodology.md)): 32 ratings, 272 ungraded forecasts.
- [Normalized model receipts](/data/model-receipts.json): 1,088 append-only prospective forecasts, 4 model lines, 2 independent.

- [Calculators](/calculators.html): 10 deterministic calculators — odds, vig, EV, hedging,
passer rating, Elo, margin translation, forecast scoring, belief summary. Inputs are not stored.

## Hubs

- [DateDawg](/datedawg.html): local ZIP/JSON reciprocal-acceptance dashboard; no upload, backend memory or observed Hinge cohort.
- [Arena](/arena.html): games played against other people — Bozo, Guillotine, Survivor, DFS,
the live draft rig, a [32-team wins pool](/teamdraft.html).
Rendered from the `domain: "arena"` rows of surfaces.json; owns no data file.
- [Library](/data.html): every file in index.json, shelved by the surface that owns it, plus
the sources we read and do not republish. Owns no data file either.
- [NFL](/nfl.html): EPA, nfelo, calculators, blocked NFL work with its blockers.

## College football

- [CFB Lab](/cfb.html): efficiency, results, Elo, matchup, divergence, roadmap.
- [Efficiency](/data/cfb-efficiency.json): 2025 cfbfastR 3.0 FBS summary; modelled, ungraded, not a forecast/DD rating.
- [2025 results](/data/cfb-schedule.json), [latest games](/data/cfb-games-latest.json), [latest periods](/data/cfb-team-week-latest.json), [ratings](/data/cfb-teams.json).
- [Book market](/data/cfb-market.json): timestamp unknown; not closing lines, so no CLV.
- [CFB Elo](/data/cfb-elo.json), [registry](/data/cfb-ratings.json) and [card](/data/cfb-model-cards.json): end-2025; retrodictive, modelled, ungraded, not consensus/forecast.
- [Fraud test](/data/cfb-record-divergence-validation.json): held-out aggregate only. [Disagreement](/data/cfb-disagreement.json): blocked on timestamped prices.
- [Prospective receipts](/data/cfb-model-receipts.json): append-only, zero rows; no CFB forecast frozen before kickoff.

## Draft

- [Player pool + MV](/data/pool.json): 613 players; 8 formats; `half14` derived, SF Half hybrid; `2026-08-24`.
- [Dynasty ranks](/data/dynasty-ranks.json): 334 players/picks; 1QB and SF/TE-premium ranks and values, not observed prices.
- [League](/data/league.json): 14 teams, $200, 15 spots, derived `half14`, no kicker.
- [2026 strategy](/data/strategy.md): positional curves and format playbooks; testable structure kept apart from analyst priors.
- [War Room](/fantasy-warroom.html): your connected Yahoo/ESPN league in DataDawg$ at its own replacement level. No public JSON — one account's rows; `dd_war_room` is deployed for connected Yahoo/ESPN accounts. Shared Sleeper context and `dd_fantasy_leagues` are deployed; a personal AI connection can discover saved leagues and select one explicitly.

## Models and data

- [Team + QB EPA](/data/epa-teams.json): 2023-2025 nflverse play-by-play; descriptive, not predictive.
- [nfelo](/data/nfelo.json): ratings, current-season lines and backtest; mirrored daily from greerreNFL/nfelo (meta.captured_at, meta.sha). Backtest is in-sample; ratings move only after games are played.
- [Schedule + win probabilities](/data/survivor.json): 272 games; market-derived where available, model-derived otherwise.
- [Parameters](/data/models.json): margin, Bozo and survivor assumptions and limitations.

## Receipts and method

- [Pre-registered forecasts](/data/receipts.json): 272 calls locked 2026-08-06; the lock is `integrity.sha256`.
- [Survivor receipts](/data/survivor-receipts.json): pre-kickoff top pick, graded after.
- [DFS week objects](/data/dfs-weeks.json): locked week receipts (lineup hashes + expectations; realized:null until Monday ingest). Aggregates only — never player lists/projections/ownership (I3).
- [Rankings report card](/data/rankings-grades.json): ranking services graded vs actual PPR finishes; pre-registered, derived scores only, ungraded until W1.
- [Receipt method](/data/receipts-method.md): hypotheses, grading, hash reproduction, tier collar.
- [Bozo rules](/data/bozo-rules.json) ([prose](/data/bozo-rules.md)): open weekly one-leg parlay.
- [House reasoning rules](/data/method.md): base rates, ranges, falsifiers, selection bias.
- [Toto philosophy](/data/toto-philosophy.md): reasoning conventions for the site AI.

## Agent notes

- If a dated number is stale enough to affect the answer, say so.
- `def_epa_play` is EPA allowed: lower is better.
- Simulation and modelled output are labelled; never present either as observation.
- Nothing here is betting advice.
- `/data/` is public, static, CORS-open and cheaper than the self-contained HTML pages.