{ "as_of": "2026-09-11", "source": "Data Dawgs reimplementation of FiveThirtyEight 538 Classic Elo at commit fbec1afa38ece5befe24fb21be8ddba8eb160fe6; state extended with nflverse/nfldata at 48a16ce4516473d67423f92e31f9170b72fec557.", "tier": "labs", "graded": false, "note": "Prospective 2026 probabilities from the original 538 Classic Elo mathematics. They are ungraded, contain no QB, injury, weather or market adjustment, and are a permanent simple benchmark rather than a claim of current superiority.", "methodology": { "home_field_elo": 65, "k_factor": 20, "offseason_reversion": 0.3333333333333333, "reversion_baseline": 1505, "win_probability": "1 / (10 ** (-adjusted_elo_difference / 400) + 1)", "margin_multiplier": "ln(max(abs(point_difference),1)+1) * 2.2 / (winner_pregame_elo_difference*0.001+2.2); ties use denominator 1", "methodology_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/538-classic-methodology.md" }, "provenance": { "generated_at": "2026-09-11T17:28:04.583807Z", "official_reference": { "repository": "fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game", "commit": "fbec1afa38ece5befe24fb21be8ddba8eb160fe6", "license": "MIT", "games_sha256": "af16cf3c5848393057fad07feea278f0a85ab7b57ddbfe42ed96b5c80e7d519d", "initial_elos_sha256": "d9e5ef0c9d762128fd2a9da0107989de4ab5c9f1e52411864adae19c6528bdf1" }, "modern_history": { "repository": 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"48a16ce4516473d67423f92e31f9170b72fec557", "games_sha256": "8f5f74d10655955da8f5993843bf3dd3a9bb0b4ed9853a1b89ef2f3c3aa0fbee", "games_replayed": 1424 }, "schedule_snapshot_id": "sha256:b87940b523b3059ffbe88b832ceb4a8b9af784ae09c89d4a150db217e6d4c362", "target_season_ratings": [ { "team": "ARI", "elo": 1395.348509 }, { "team": "ATL", "elo": 1475.322689 }, { "team": "BAL", "elo": 1546.590992 }, { "team": "BUF", "elo": 1609.382196 }, { "team": "CAR", "elo": 1433.309904 }, { "team": "CHI", "elo": 1531.559066 }, { "team": "CIN", "elo": 1483.012378 }, { "team": "CLE", "elo": 1426.710159 }, { "team": "DAL", "elo": 1461.458616 }, { "team": "DEN", "elo": 1607.908322 }, { "team": "DET", "elo": 1558.744279 }, { "team": "GB", "elo": 1529.341701 }, { "team": "HOU", "elo": 1610.307635 }, { "team": "IND", "elo": 1470.729752 }, { "team": "JAX", "elo": 1571.381062 }, { "team": "KC", "elo": 1491.71403 }, { "team": "LAC", "elo": 1530.500956 }, { "team": "LAR", "elo": 1612.55363 }, { "team": "LV", "elo": 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