One favorite each, one big parlay. Whoever busts it worst wears it — and funds next week's ticket.
Each row is the server-drawn order for that week. The first lever that isolates one losing leg names the bozo.
Original captures take precedence. Otherwise, these public source-reported closing prices are uncorroborated reference evidence. Missing original captures stay missing. These numbers do not change official CLV, rankings, tiebreakers or settlement. Full-game markets only; never substitute a main line for an alternate line.
Filter the league ledger to separate price quality from results. Expected wins use the de-vigged closing line; CLV needs both sides at entry and close.
Data Dawgs · The DawgHouse · this week’s bill
For one week only, the management presents
Eight souls✦One ticket✦Real money✦No escape but winning
Choose your league
running. Open one to see its board; the boards are public whether or not you are in them.
Sign in with your own account, choose the league, and enter its shared password.
A separate group with its own band, week and ledger. It starts with its manager only; everyone else joins with the shared password.
Example only · simulated data
Explore an example board with picks, results and charts filled in. These are simulated results, not a league to join.
One favorite each. One big parlay.Whoever busts it worst wears it.
Every member of the league files one leg — a favorite, priced inside the league’s band. All of them ride one real parlay at DraftKings, funded by last week’s bozo. If it cashes, everybody eats. If it busts, exactly one loser is named the bozo, and that person buys next week’s ticket. You can only be the bozo if your own leg lost.
★ ✦ ★
Tonight on the boards
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Four levers · a fresh order every week
Only legs that lost are eligible — cash yours and you walk, however ugly the price was. Among the losers, the levers below decide, in an order that is drawn fresh every single week.
The biggest favorite in the pool. The chalkiest leg on the ticket, if it lost, is the first one anybody looks at.
The expectation-adjusted rule applies only to an explicitly approved season/week. Unstamped completed weeks keep their prior rule. Under the new rule, moneylines measure the shortfall from a modelled expected margin derived from paired entry odds. Missing or unverified pairs are unmeasurable; no opposite price is invented. Spreads and totals measure the miss from their posted line. All use standard deviations — so a blowout in a low-variance market counts for more than a blowout anywhere. A half or quarter leg uses the game SD scaled by the square root of the fraction played (a half is ×0.71, a quarter ×0.5) — a stated model, not a measured one, until it is calibrated. The table is /docs/bozo-sd.json.
The final leg submitted. The only lever you can move by acting: it belongs to whoever files last, and it moves to the next person the moment they enter.
The price that moved most against it between submission and close. not measured yet
Your confirmed price stays on the entry. After you commit a leg, Bozo attempts one exact two-sided DraftKings capture, then one near kickoff. Unavailable evidence stays pending for manager review; a later quote never becomes an original entry quote.
Bozo odds are simulation. Anywhere this site quotes a chance of wearing it, that is Monte Carlo output, not an observation, and the simulation draws every leg independently. Two legs on the same game are not independent, so a ticket carrying a stack is wrong in a direction nobody has measured.
CLV needs four real prices. It is measured only when both sides of the automatically captured or manually verified DraftKings entry and both sides of the kickoff close exist. A missing side is unmeasured, never estimated and never treated as zero.
Demo leagues are invented. Every leg, price, close and result in a league badged DEMO · SIMULATED was fabricated to exercise the interface. They use the real eight names on purpose, which is exactly why the badge is load-bearing rather than decoration. They count toward nothing.
The draw is the server’s. The running order is one permutation, drawn at the moment the ticket locks and written once. Nothing in your browser can re-roll it, and the strip above is a demonstration of the shuffle, not a preview of it.
Pre-kickoff correction: preserves the draw and lock time. Replaces one pick with a fresh quote and confirmation time; Last In, price and CLV may change. Original receipts stay in the audit. Unavailable after any ticket game starts or results exist.
Checking this page…
We check DraftKings odds when you submit. If the checker is unavailable, enter the odds yourself: your pick is accepted as Unverified, and the manager can confirm the original prices for CLV afterward. No exact duplicates. Editing a pick resets your clock; verifying its odds does not.
The roster is the size — the ticket locks when everyone here has a leg in. People normally add themselves: create an account, choose this league, enter its shared password. You can also seat someone who already has an account, and roster changes no longer wait for the board — anyone added while a ticket is placed starts playing next week.
Everyone signs in with their own email, chooses this league under Your Dawgs, then enters the same league password. League names appear in the signed-in directory; passwords are never shown. A forgotten password is replaced, never revealed.
Status checks when you open these controls.
Edit anything in this league, at any time. Every change is recorded below with the value it replaced — the log is append-only, so a change can always be read back and undone by hand.
How the season ends if everyone keeps betting the way they have been. Each simulated week deals every survivor one of their own past legs and re-rolls only the result, so nobody's future betting is invented — it is their own history, replayed.
Simulation, not observation. Lever standings are conditional on a loss, not a forecast.