One favorite each, one big parlay. Whoever busts it worst wears it — and funds next week's ticket.
Each row is the server-drawn order for that week. The first lever that isolates one losing leg names the bozo.
Filter the league ledger to separate price quality from results. Expected wins use the de-vigged closing line; CLV needs both sides at entry and close.
Data Dawgs · The DawgHouse · this week’s bill
For one week only, the management presents
Eight souls✦One ticket✦Real money✦No escape but winning
Choose your league
running. Open one to see its board; the boards are public whether or not you are in them.
Sign in with your own account, choose the league, and enter its shared password.
A separate group with its own band, week and ledger. It starts with its manager only; everyone else joins with the shared password.
Example only · simulated data
Explore an example board with picks, results and charts filled in. These are simulated results, not a league to join.
One favorite each. One big parlay.Whoever busts it worst wears it.
Every member of the league files one leg — a favorite, priced inside the league’s band. All of them ride one real parlay at DraftKings, funded by last week’s bozo. If it cashes, everybody eats. If it busts, exactly one loser is named the bozo, and that person buys next week’s ticket. You can only be the bozo if your own leg lost.
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Tonight on the boards
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Four levers · a fresh order every week
Only legs that lost are eligible — cash yours and you walk, however ugly the price was. Among the losers, the levers below decide, in an order that is drawn fresh every single week.
The biggest favorite in the pool. The chalkiest leg on the ticket, if it lost, is the first one anybody looks at.
Finished furthest under its number, measured in standard deviations — so a blowout in a low-variance market counts for more than a blowout anywhere. A half or quarter leg uses the game SD scaled by the square root of the fraction played (a half is ×0.71, a quarter ×0.5) — a stated model, not a measured one, until it is calibrated. The table is /docs/bozo-sd.json.
The final leg submitted. The only lever you can move by acting: it belongs to whoever files last, and it moves to the next person the moment they enter.
The price that moved most against it between submission and close. not measured yet
Game-market prices are captured. At submit, the Worker reads both sides from DraftKings through SGO and freezes that quote for confirmation. A prop that cannot be resolved, and every Other leg, is visibly marked self-priced and excluded from CLV.
Bozo odds are simulation. Anywhere this site quotes a chance of wearing it, that is Monte Carlo output, not an observation, and the simulation draws every leg independently. Two legs on the same game are not independent, so a ticket carrying a stack is wrong in a direction nobody has measured.
CLV needs four real prices. It is measured only when both sides of the captured DraftKings entry and both sides of the kickoff close exist. A missing side is unmeasured, never estimated and never treated as zero.
Demo leagues are invented. Every leg, price, close and result in a league badged DEMO · SIMULATED was fabricated to exercise the interface. They use the real eight names on purpose, which is exactly why the badge is load-bearing rather than decoration. They count toward nothing.
The draw is the server’s. The running order is one permutation, drawn at the moment the ticket locks and written once. Nothing in your browser can re-roll it, and the strip above is a demonstration of the shuffle, not a preview of it.
DraftKings price and the opposite side are captured when you submit. The price box is only an optional typo check; it is required for Other and as a prop fallback. No exact duplicates. Editing resets your clock and captures a fresh price.
The roster is the size — the ticket locks when everyone here has a leg in. People normally add themselves: create an account, choose this league, enter its shared password. You can also seat someone who already has an account, and roster changes no longer wait for the board — anyone added while a ticket is placed starts playing next week.
Everyone signs in with their own email, chooses this league under Your Dawgs, then enters the same league password. League names appear in the signed-in directory; passwords are never shown. A forgotten password is replaced, never revealed.
Status checks when you open these controls.
Edit anything in this league, at any time. Every change is recorded below with the value it replaced — the log is append-only, so a change can always be read back and undone by hand.
Each dot is one player through one week. Horizontal is the price they got against the closing line; vertical is how often they actually won versus how often the closing line said they should. Hover or pick a name to trace a season.
How the season ends if everyone keeps betting the way they have been. Each simulated week deals every survivor one of their own past legs and re-rolls only the result, so nobody's future betting is invented — it is their own history, replayed.