{
"source_page": "/survivor.html",
"tier": "labs",
"graded": false,
"as_of": "2026-09-12",
"source": "nfelo 0386d83b published forecasts and ratings + nflverse/nfldata 2026 schedule.",
"note": "Full 2026 schedule with per-game win probabilities. `src` says where each probability came from: \"nfelo\" = published nfelo forecast without an extra blend; \"nfelo-season\" = nfelo pre-market calculation with current team/QB strength and game-specific HFA. Ownership is modelled, not observed.",
"field_notes": {
"mm": "Legacy margin diagnostic; not used to calculate win probabilities",
"mk": "market-implied home win probability (null when no line); derivation and provenance are named by mk_src",
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror | carried:2026-08-06 | null",
"mk_obs": "when the market input was observed; null when no line",
"mk_book": "source book; null because the nfelo upstream output does not identify it",
"season_p": "nfelo pre-market logistic probability using current base ratings, QB adjustments and game-specific HFA",
"season_elo_dif": "Base home minus away Elo plus HFA Elo and net QB adjustment",
"nfp": "Published nfelo home win probability; null when unavailable. No additional market blend.",
"nfelo_obs": "Upstream commit timestamp for the published forecast",
"p": "Home win probability used: published nfelo forecast or nfelo-based full-season projection",
"src": "nfelo | nfelo-season"
},
"data": {
"meta": {
"season": 2026,
"captured": "2026-09-12",
"elo_per_pt": 23.58,
"hfa": 2.1,
"sd": 13.18,
"model_su": 0.6575,
"blend_su": 0.6674,
"market_su": 0.6677,
"nfelo_sha": "0386d83b",
"sched_src": "nflverse/nfldata",
"market_observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"probability_method": "nfelo-season-v1",
"probability_method_since": "2026-09-09",
"season_projection": {
"z": 401.62,
"qb_weight": 1,
"hfa_sha": "14568aec88d746051cc007d1df8d3e0cd8686a42",
"hfa_committed_at": "2026-09-11T01:02:17-07:00",
"assumption": "Current base team strength and QB adjustments held fixed for future games; game-specific HFA from nfelohfa. No extra market regression."
}
},
"elo": {
"LAR": 1647.8,
"SEA": 1627.6,
"BUF": 1616,
"BAL": 1606.6,
"DET": 1596.1,
"KC": 1593.7,
"NE": 1589.9,
"HOU": 1584.7,
"PHI": 1578.1,
"CIN": 1568.9,
"GB": 1563.9,
"DEN": 1561.2,
"SF": 1559.5,
"CHI": 1546.7,
"DAL": 1544.3,
"LAC": 1540.4,
"JAX": 1539.7,
"MIN": 1532.8,
"PIT": 1511.2,
"TB": 1509.3,
"IND": 1505.1,
"WAS": 1480.5,
"NYG": 1452.1,
"CAR": 1449.4,
"ATL": 1437,
"NO": 1423.5,
"LV": 1421.4,
"TEN": 1400.8,
"NYJ": 1374.2,
"ARI": 1366.6,
"CLE": 1363.6,
"MIA": 1352.5
},
"teams": {
"ARI": {
"n": "Cardinals",
"loc": "Arizona",
"full": "Arizona Cardinals"
},
"ATL": {
"n": "Falcons",
"loc": "Atlanta",
"full": "Atlanta Falcons"
},
"BAL": {
"n": "Ravens",
"loc": "Baltimore",
"full": "Baltimore Ravens"
},
"BUF": {
"n": "Bills",
"loc": "Buffalo",
"full": "Buffalo Bills"
},
"CAR": {
"n": "Panthers",
"loc": "Carolina",
"full": "Carolina Panthers"
},
"CHI": {
"n": "Bears",
"loc": "Chicago",
"full": "Chicago Bears"
},
"CIN": {
"n": "Bengals",
"loc": "Cincinnati",
"full": "Cincinnati Bengals"
},
"CLE": {
"n": "Browns",
"loc": "Cleveland",
"full": "Cleveland Browns"
},
"DAL": {
"n": "Cowboys",
"loc": "Dallas",
"full": "Dallas Cowboys"
},
"DEN": {
"n": "Broncos",
"loc": "Denver",
"full": "Denver Broncos"
},
"DET": {
"n": "Lions",
"loc": "Detroit",
"full": "Detroit Lions"
},
"GB": {
"n": "Packers",
"loc": "Green Bay",
"full": "Green Bay Packers"
},
"HOU": {
"n": "Texans",
"loc": "Houston",
"full": "Houston Texans"
},
"IND": {
"n": "Colts",
"loc": "Indianapolis",
"full": "Indianapolis Colts"
},
"JAX": {
"n": "Jaguars",
"loc": "Jacksonville",
"full": "Jacksonville Jaguars"
},
"KC": {
"n": "Chiefs",
"loc": "Kansas City",
"full": "Kansas City Chiefs"
},
"LAC": {
"n": "Chargers",
"loc": "LA Chargers",
"full": "Los Angeles Chargers"
},
"LV": {
"n": "Raiders",
"loc": "Las Vegas",
"full": "Las Vegas Raiders"
},
"MIA": {
"n": "Dolphins",
"loc": "Miami",
"full": "Miami Dolphins"
},
"MIN": {
"n": "Vikings",
"loc": "Minnesota",
"full": "Minnesota Vikings"
},
"NE": {
"n": "Patriots",
"loc": "New England",
"full": "New England Patriots"
},
"NO": {
"n": "Saints",
"loc": "New Orleans",
"full": "New Orleans Saints"
},
"NYG": {
"n": "Giants",
"loc": "NY Giants",
"full": "New York Giants"
},
"NYJ": {
"n": "Jets",
"loc": "NY Jets",
"full": "New York Jets"
},
"PHI": {
"n": "Eagles",
"loc": "Philadelphia",
"full": "Philadelphia Eagles"
},
"PIT": {
"n": "Steelers",
"loc": "Pittsburgh",
"full": "Pittsburgh Steelers"
},
"SEA": {
"n": "Seahawks",
"loc": "Seattle",
"full": "Seattle Seahawks"
},
"SF": {
"n": "49ers",
"loc": "San Francisco",
"full": "San Francisco 49ers"
},
"TB": {
"n": "Buccaneers",
"loc": "Tampa Bay",
"full": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers"
},
"TEN": {
"n": "Titans",
"loc": "Tennessee",
"full": "Tennessee Titans"
},
"WAS": {
"n": "Commanders",
"loc": "Washington",
"full": "Washington Commanders"
},
"LAR": {
"n": "LAR",
"loc": "LAR",
"full": "LAR"
}
},
"games": [
{
"id": "2026_01_NE_SEA",
"wk": 1,
"h": "SEA",
"a": "NE",
"d": "2026-09-09",
"mm": 3.699,
"mk": 0.6311,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.6311,
"season_p": 0.6474294806294096,
"season_elo_dif": 106.00618355781911,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.6311,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_SF_LA",
"wk": 1,
"h": "LAR",
"a": "SF",
"d": "2026-09-10",
"mm": 5.845,
"mk": 0.6311,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.6311,
"season_p": 0.6178682315398322,
"season_elo_dif": 83.81115473423333,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.6311,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_ATL_PIT",
"wk": 1,
"h": "PIT",
"a": "ATL",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 5.247,
"mk": 0.7151,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.7149,
"season_p": 0.6832133753538256,
"season_elo_dif": 134.05654841343977,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.7149,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_BAL_IND",
"wk": 1,
"h": "IND",
"a": "BAL",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": -2.204,
"mk": 0.3689,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.4113,
"season_p": 0.4406413767138803,
"season_elo_dif": -41.609865102930556,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.4113,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU",
"wk": 1,
"h": "HOU",
"a": "BUF",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 0.773,
"mk": 0.4427,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.4523,
"season_p": 0.5075161841782654,
"season_elo_dif": 5.244327007200901,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.4523,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_CHI_CAR",
"wk": 1,
"h": "CAR",
"a": "CHI",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": -2.026,
"mk": 0.387,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.387,
"season_p": 0.43595889387229664,
"season_elo_dif": -44.92730708471094,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.387,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX",
"wk": 1,
"h": "JAX",
"a": "CLE",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 9.568,
"mk": 0.7865,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.7865,
"season_p": 0.7797560792345019,
"season_elo_dif": 220.511404685547,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.7865,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_NO_DET",
"wk": 1,
"h": "DET",
"a": "NO",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 9.42,
"mk": 0.7453,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.7453,
"season_p": 0.7841119025984232,
"season_elo_dif": 224.96718091013304,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.7453,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_NYJ_TEN",
"wk": 1,
"h": "TEN",
"a": "NYJ",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 3.228,
"mk": 0.5573,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.5573,
"season_p": 0.6107099750167705,
"season_elo_dif": 78.54150518549326,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.5573,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_TB_CIN",
"wk": 1,
"h": "CIN",
"a": "TB",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 4.628,
"mk": 0.6311,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.6311,
"season_p": 0.6648790507183211,
"season_elo_dif": 119.49844520712558,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.6311,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_ARI_LAC",
"wk": 1,
"h": "LAC",
"a": "ARI",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 9.471,
"mk": 0.8111,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.8111,
"season_p": 0.7925154469502274,
"season_elo_dif": 233.7516620736199,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.8111,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_GB_MIN",
"wk": 1,
"h": "MIN",
"a": "GB",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 0.781,
"mk": 0.5573,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.5573,
"season_p": 0.5126649770300763,
"season_elo_dif": 8.838060065520864,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.5573,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_MIA_LV",
"wk": 1,
"h": "LV",
"a": "MIA",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 5.022,
"mk": 0.613,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.613,
"season_p": 0.6772037247888907,
"season_elo_dif": 129.23763052346993,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.613,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_WAS_PHI",
"wk": 1,
"h": "PHI",
"a": "WAS",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": 6.239,
"mk": 0.6992,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.6992,
"season_p": 0.6680238551841011,
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"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.6992,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_DAL_NYG",
"wk": 1,
"h": "NYG",
"a": "DAL",
"d": "2026-09-13",
"mm": -1.81,
"mk": 0.387,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
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"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.387,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_01_DEN_KC",
"wk": 1,
"h": "KC",
"a": "DEN",
"d": "2026-09-14",
"mm": 3.478,
"mk": 0.5947,
"mk_src": "nfelo-mirror",
"mk_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": 0.5947,
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"season_elo_dif": 49.01851251963622,
"nfelo_obs": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"p": 0.5947,
"src": "nfelo"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_DET_BUF",
"wk": 2,
"h": "BUF",
"a": "DET",
"d": "2026-09-17",
"mm": 2.944,
"mk": 0.583,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"season_elo_dif": 64.2960495542864,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.5911266597817059,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_CAR_ATL",
"wk": 2,
"h": "ATL",
"a": "CAR",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 1.574,
"mk": 0.5325,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"nfp": null,
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"season_elo_dif": 27.484548674842614,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.5393125888649722,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_CIN_HOU",
"wk": 2,
"h": "HOU",
"a": "CIN",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 2.77,
"mk": 0.5514,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"nfelo_obs": null,
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"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_CLE_TB",
"wk": 2,
"h": "TB",
"a": "CLE",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 8.279,
"mk": 0.675,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
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"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.748407463908888,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_GB_NYJ",
"wk": 2,
"h": "NYJ",
"a": "GB",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": -5.945,
"mk": 0.3146,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
"mk_book": null,
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"season_elo_dif": -121.77800728919328,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.3322152209584247,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_MIN_CHI",
"wk": 2,
"h": "CHI",
"a": "MIN",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 2.689,
"mk": 0.6225,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": null,
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"season_elo_dif": 53.84369734475891,
"nfelo_obs": null,
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"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_NO_BAL",
"wk": 2,
"h": "BAL",
"a": "NO",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 9.865,
"mk": 0.7409,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"nfp": null,
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"season_elo_dif": 250.97252606346433,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.8082821607965515,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_PHI_TEN",
"wk": 2,
"h": "TEN",
"a": "PHI",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": -5.419,
"mk": 0.3553,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"nfp": null,
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"season_elo_dif": -140.81207983304049,
"nfelo_obs": null,
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"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_PIT_NE",
"wk": 2,
"h": "NE",
"a": "PIT",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 5.438,
"mk": 0.669,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"season_elo_dif": 138.64590130952575,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.6888804835583563,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_JAX_DEN",
"wk": 2,
"h": "DEN",
"a": "JAX",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 3.012,
"mk": 0.5635,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
"mk_book": null,
"nfp": null,
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"season_elo_dif": 81.77805158481459,
"nfelo_obs": null,
"p": 0.6151123474623795,
"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_LV_LAC",
"wk": 2,
"h": "LAC",
"a": "LV",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 7.147,
"mk": 0.7768,
"mk_src": "carried:2026-08-06",
"mk_obs": "2026-08-06",
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"nfp": null,
"season_p": 0.7132234284911951,
"season_elo_dif": 158.91377770246268,
"nfelo_obs": null,
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"src": "nfelo-season"
},
{
"id": "2026_02_MIA_SF",
"wk": 2,
"h": "SF",
"a": "MIA",
"d": "2026-09-20",
"mm": 10.879,
"mk": 0.8119,
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"note": "ESPN-only teams retain their normalized ESPN share. Remaining mass blends ETR and ESPN equally. Weights are judgmental, uncalibrated; sensitivity scenarios are not confidence intervals. Week-specific; never carried into later weeks."
}
}
},
"tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
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"canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/survivor.json"
}