{
 "source_page": "/survivor.html",
 "tier": "labs",
 "graded": false,
 "as_of": "2026-08-28",
 "source": "Captured by work/survivor-receipt.mjs from survivor.html's own engine, before each week's earliest kickoff.",
 "note": "PROSPECTIVE RECEIPTS. Every row was written before the week it forecasts kicked off — captured_at < kickoff_at is enforced at capture, not flagged afterwards, and a row is never edited once written. What is graded is CALIBRATION of the stated win probabilities (Brier) and whether the pick survived. This is NOT a claim that the tool beats a pool: whether an entry would have won depends on the rest of the field, which is not ours to score. `n` is small and stays small — 18 weeks is at most 18 scored predictions per entry — so read every figure next to its n and do not draw a calibration curve on a season.",
 "field_notes": {
  "recommended": "the board's number-one pick, as an array — a double-pick week states two",
  "stated_win_probability": "per leg, in the same order, as stated at capture",
  "survived": "AND over the legs; a double week with one loss is false",
  "brier": "mean over legs of (p - outcome)^2; null until resolved",
  "forecast_status": "prospective | resolved | void",
  "supersedes": "receipt_id this row replaces, when lines moved before kickoff; both rows stay"
 },
 "counts": {
  "registered": 1,
  "resolved": 0,
  "prospective": 1,
  "survived": 0,
  "brier_n": 0,
  "brier_mean": null
 },
 "integrity": {
  "rows": 1
 },
 "data": [
  {
   "receipt_id": "survivor-2026-w01-default",
   "season": 2026,
   "week": 1,
   "entry_id": "default",
   "entry_label": "Public default — 200 entries, single life, no reuse, winnings objective",
   "recommended": [
    "LAC"
   ],
   "stated_win_probability": [
    0.78491
   ],
   "stated_leg_source": [
    "market"
   ],
   "stated_equity_index": 100,
   "stated_run_the_table": 0.002184732,
   "alternatives": [
    {
     "team": "JAX",
     "win_probability": 0.741094,
     "equity_index": 94.4,
     "run_the_table": 0.00190062
    },
    {
     "team": "DET",
     "win_probability": 0.717003,
     "equity_index": 91.5,
     "run_the_table": 0.00192508
    }
   ],
   "objective": "winnings",
   "ownership_source": "modelled",
   "ownership_adjustment": "alive-count projection; pick mix assumed independent of survival",
   "config": {
    "entries": 200,
    "lives": 1,
    "reuse": false,
    "double_pick_weeks": [],
    "week18_mode": "normal",
    "blend_market": 0.75,
    "chalk": 2.4,
    "used_teams": []
   },
   "input_snapshot_id": "sha256:08c1f34f5eb2bc94cfbff001187b7fcbbb18a7dbb90e090038f65108b1f15dc3",
   "input_as_of": "2026-08-06",
   "engine_version": "survivor.html@94a54e9adfc3",
   "captured_at": "2026-08-28T00:12:07.878Z",
   "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z",
   "forecast_status": "prospective",
   "supersedes": null,
   "resolved": null
  }
 ],
 "tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
 "built": "2026-08-28",
 "canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/survivor-receipts.json"
}