{
 "as_of": "2026-10-29",
 "source": "Data Dawgs season simulation (playoff-leverage-engine v1, work/playoff-leverage-engine.js) over /data/nfl-schedule.json results (snapshot sha256:072c851ec965…, captured 2026-10-27T03:29:05.134792Z) and /data/survivor.json game probabilities (nfelo 81006e1b, captured 2026-10-29).",
 "tier": "labs",
 "graded": false,
 "note": "SIMULATION OUTPUT, ungraded — not a forecast receipt and not a betting signal. Each of 100,000 simulated seasons keeps every finished game's real result and plays every unplayed 2026 regular-season game once at its /data/survivor.json home-win probability (the published nfelo forecast for the current week, the nfelo season projection after it). Leverage is paired: every season is also played with one game's result flipped while every other game keeps its simulated result. Team strength is held fixed and games are independent, so probabilities near 0% and 100% are overconfident. Seeding follows the NFL tie-breaking procedures through strength of schedule; a tie that survives SOS goes to a coin toss because points are not simulated. Daily snapshot: rebuilt after the nfelo refresh, deterministic for identical inputs.",
 "built": "2026-10-29",
 "canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/nfl-playoff-leverage.json",
 "tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
 "method": {
  "engine": "playoff-leverage-engine v1",
  "simulation": "100,000 seasons. Finals are real results (a tie counts half a win). Each unplayed game is one independent Bernoulli draw at p_home; no simulated ties.",
  "leverage": "Paired common random numbers: for each game of the target week, every simulated season is replayed with that result flipped. if_win and if_loss are P(playoffs) across all seasons with the team forced to win or lose that game; swing = if_win - if_loss. now = P(playoffs) across the unforced seasons.",
  "ordering": "Games by the sum of both teams' swings, largest first; within a game, the larger swing first.",
  "tiebreakers": "NFL division and wild-card procedures: head-to-head (wild-card multi-club: sweep only), division record, common games (wild card: minimum four), conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, then a per-season coin toss. Two clubs left by a multi-club step revert to two-club step 1; each division order is fixed before wild cards are drawn. Seeds 1-4 are division winners, 5-7 wild cards.",
  "precision": "Monte Carlo, paired: swing_se is each swing's standard error (probability scale). Largest on this file: 0.0014 for a swing, 0.0014 for any club's shift between a game's two results. The page lists other clubs' shifts of 0.002 (0.2 points) or more.",
  "limits": [
   "Team strength is fixed within a season and games are independent: no rating updates, injuries or QB changes beyond what p_home already carries. This understates uncertainty, so values near 0 and 1 are overconfident.",
   "Tie-breaking steps after strength of schedule (points-based) are not modelled; those ties go to a coin toss.",
   "A game whose final has not reached /data/nfl-schedule.json is simulated as unplayed, even after kickoff.",
   "Ungraded. Nothing here has been scored against outcomes, and it is not a consensus of models."
  ],
  "validation": "work/validate-playoff-history.mjs replays real seasons (nflverse/nfldata games.csv) through the same seeding code and requires every conference's actual playoff field, byes and wild-card pairings with hosts; it runs on every pull request that touches the engine."
 },
 "inputs": {
  "schedule": {
   "url": "/data/nfl-schedule.json",
   "as_of": "2026-10-27",
   "snapshot_id": "sha256:072c851ec965073da31cd803d1d9a51730b499a8d86b0a0900b722df84be2bd6",
   "source_commit": "0ddc5935efa132aa818f6e1aa4e10eef479d2056",
   "captured_at": "2026-10-27T03:29:05.134792Z",
   "finals": 107,
   "unplayed": 165
  },
  "probabilities": {
   "url": "/data/survivor.json",
   "as_of": "2026-10-29",
   "nfelo_sha": "81006e1b",
   "captured": "2026-10-29",
   "nfelo_observed_at": "2026-10-29T19:40:48.000Z",
   "method": "nfelo-season-v1",
   "current_week": "src \"nfelo\": published nfelo forecast",
   "later_weeks": "src \"nfelo-season\": Current base team strength and QB adjustments held fixed for future games; game-specific HFA from nfelohfa. No extra market regression."
  }
 },
 "data": {
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 8,
  "sims": 100000,
  "seed": "291c509dae76630514e4f4bb839d0471",
  "precision": {
   "swing_se_max": 0.0014,
   "shift_se_max": 0.0014
  },
  "week_games": {
   "total": 14,
   "final": 0,
   "remaining": 14
  },
  "byes": [
   "HOU",
   "NYG",
   "NO",
   "SF"
  ],
  "last_final": {
   "game_id": "2026_07_DAL_PHI",
   "kickoff_at": "2026-10-27T00:15:00Z",
   "away": "DAL",
   "home": "PHI",
   "away_score": 38,
   "home_score": 21
  },
  "team_order": [
   "BUF",
   "MIA",
   "NE",
   "NYJ",
   "BAL",
   "CIN",
   "CLE",
   "PIT",
   "HOU",
   "IND",
   "JAX",
   "TEN",
   "DEN",
   "KC",
   "LAC",
   "LV",
   "DAL",
   "NYG",
   "PHI",
   "WAS",
   "CHI",
   "DET",
   "GB",
   "MIN",
   "ATL",
   "CAR",
   "NO",
   "TB",
   "ARI",
   "LAR",
   "SEA",
   "SF"
  ],
  "teams": [
   {
    "team": "BUF",
    "name": "Bills",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC East",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.9651,
    "division_title": 0.7754,
    "bye": 0.3714,
    "wins_mean": 12.32
   },
   {
    "team": "MIA",
    "name": "Dolphins",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC East",
    "w": 1,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0006,
    "division_title": 0.0001,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 3.77
   },
   {
    "team": "NE",
    "name": "Patriots",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC East",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 3,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.7476,
    "division_title": 0.2237,
    "bye": 0.0531,
    "wins_mean": 10.13
   },
   {
    "team": "NYJ",
    "name": "Jets",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC East",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0091,
    "division_title": 0.0008,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 5.51
   },
   {
    "team": "BAL",
    "name": "Ravens",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC North",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 3,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.4871,
    "division_title": 0.1278,
    "bye": 0.0191,
    "wins_mean": 9.66
   },
   {
    "team": "CIN",
    "name": "Bengals",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC North",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.8736,
    "division_title": 0.5799,
    "bye": 0.1407,
    "wins_mean": 11.43
   },
   {
    "team": "CLE",
    "name": "Browns",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC North",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.2665,
    "division_title": 0.0659,
    "bye": 0.0027,
    "wins_mean": 8.7
   },
   {
    "team": "PIT",
    "name": "Steelers",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC North",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.6031,
    "division_title": 0.2264,
    "bye": 0.0294,
    "wins_mean": 10.1
   },
   {
    "team": "HOU",
    "name": "Texans",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC South",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.32,
    "division_title": 0.1757,
    "bye": 0.0008,
    "wins_mean": 8.45
   },
   {
    "team": "IND",
    "name": "Colts",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC South",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0462,
    "division_title": 0.0304,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 6.72
   },
   {
    "team": "JAX",
    "name": "Jaguars",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC South",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.8711,
    "division_title": 0.7937,
    "bye": 0.0775,
    "wins_mean": 10.89
   },
   {
    "team": "TEN",
    "name": "Titans",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC South",
    "w": 1,
    "l": 6,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0003,
    "division_title": 0.0002,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 3.51
   },
   {
    "team": "DEN",
    "name": "Broncos",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC West",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.8301,
    "division_title": 0.3839,
    "bye": 0.1191,
    "wins_mean": 11.04
   },
   {
    "team": "KC",
    "name": "Chiefs",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC West",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 1,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.9186,
    "division_title": 0.6072,
    "bye": 0.1861,
    "wins_mean": 11.36
   },
   {
    "team": "LAC",
    "name": "Chargers",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC West",
    "w": 0,
    "l": 6,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0011,
    "division_title": 0,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 4.15
   },
   {
    "team": "LV",
    "name": "Raiders",
    "conf": "AFC",
    "division": "AFC West",
    "w": 3,
    "l": 4,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0599,
    "division_title": 0.0089,
    "bye": 0.0002,
    "wins_mean": 7.09
   },
   {
    "team": "DAL",
    "name": "Cowboys",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC East",
    "w": 3,
    "l": 4,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.6175,
    "division_title": 0.5978,
    "bye": 0.0053,
    "wins_mean": 8.94
   },
   {
    "team": "NYG",
    "name": "Giants",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC East",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 1,
    "playoffs": 0.3155,
    "division_title": 0.2881,
    "bye": 0.0022,
    "wins_mean": 8.07
   },
   {
    "team": "PHI",
    "name": "Eagles",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC East",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0283,
    "division_title": 0.0267,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 5.66
   },
   {
    "team": "WAS",
    "name": "Commanders",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC East",
    "w": 1,
    "l": 4,
    "t": 1,
    "playoffs": 0.0952,
    "division_title": 0.0875,
    "bye": 0.0001,
    "wins_mean": 6.55
   },
   {
    "team": "CHI",
    "name": "Bears",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC North",
    "w": 5,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.7339,
    "division_title": 0.1838,
    "bye": 0.0855,
    "wins_mean": 10.72
   },
   {
    "team": "DET",
    "name": "Lions",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC North",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 2,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.7872,
    "division_title": 0.2714,
    "bye": 0.1358,
    "wins_mean": 10.8
   },
   {
    "team": "GB",
    "name": "Packers",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC North",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 3,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.2842,
    "division_title": 0.025,
    "bye": 0.007,
    "wins_mean": 8.74
   },
   {
    "team": "MIN",
    "name": "Vikings",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC North",
    "w": 6,
    "l": 0,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.9173,
    "division_title": 0.5198,
    "bye": 0.2947,
    "wins_mean": 11.81
   },
   {
    "team": "ATL",
    "name": "Falcons",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC South",
    "w": 3,
    "l": 4,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.2814,
    "division_title": 0.264,
    "bye": 0.0014,
    "wins_mean": 7.34
   },
   {
    "team": "CAR",
    "name": "Panthers",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC South",
    "w": 3,
    "l": 3,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.392,
    "division_title": 0.378,
    "bye": 0.0032,
    "wins_mean": 7.75
   },
   {
    "team": "NO",
    "name": "Saints",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC South",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.1491,
    "division_title": 0.1435,
    "bye": 0.0001,
    "wins_mean": 6.64
   },
   {
    "team": "TB",
    "name": "Buccaneers",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC South",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.2212,
    "division_title": 0.2144,
    "bye": 0.0003,
    "wins_mean": 6.74
   },
   {
    "team": "ARI",
    "name": "Cardinals",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC West",
    "w": 2,
    "l": 5,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.0021,
    "division_title": 0.0001,
    "bye": 0,
    "wins_mean": 5.24
   },
   {
    "team": "LAR",
    "name": "Rams",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC West",
    "w": 3,
    "l": 4,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.4962,
    "division_title": 0.0675,
    "bye": 0.0191,
    "wins_mean": 9.48
   },
   {
    "team": "SEA",
    "name": "Seahawks",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC West",
    "w": 4,
    "l": 3,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.7208,
    "division_title": 0.1721,
    "bye": 0.0592,
    "wins_mean": 10.51
   },
   {
    "team": "SF",
    "name": "49ers",
    "conf": "NFC",
    "division": "NFC West",
    "w": 6,
    "l": 1,
    "t": 0,
    "playoffs": 0.958,
    "division_title": 0.7604,
    "bye": 0.3863,
    "wins_mean": 12.19
   }
  ],
  "games": [
   {
    "game_id": "2026_08_CLE_PIT",
    "kickoff_at": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z",
    "neutral_site": false,
    "away": "CLE",
    "home": "PIT",
    "p_home": 0.6716,
    "p_source": "nfelo",
    "leverage": 0.5416,
    "teams": [
     {
      "team": "PIT",
      "side": "home",
      "p_win": 0.6716,
      "now": 0.6031,
      "if_win": 0.6943,
      "if_loss": 0.4188,
      "swing": 0.2756,
      "swing_se": 0.0014
     },
     {
      "team": "CLE",
      "side": "away",
      "p_win": 0.3284,
      "now": 0.2665,
      "if_win": 0.4446,
      "if_loss": 0.1785,
      "swing": 0.266,
      "swing_se": 0.0014
     }
    ],
    "if_home_win": [
     0.9645,
     0.0006,
     0.747,
     0.009,
     0.4877,
     0.8745,
     0.1785,
     0.6943,
     0.3184,
     0.0449,
     0.8699,
     0.0003,
     0.8325,
     0.918,
     0.0011,
     0.0588,
     0.6175,
     0.3155,
     0.0283,
     0.0952,
     0.7339,
     0.7872,
     0.2842,
     0.9173,
     0.2814,
     0.3921,
     0.149,
     0.2213,
     0.0021,
     0.4963,
     0.7208,
     0.958
    ],
    "if_away_win": [
     0.9661,
     0.0005,
     0.7491,
     0.0092,
     0.4843,
     0.8721,
     0.4446,
     0.4188,
     0.3237,
     0.0482,
     0.8733,
     0.0003,
     0.8267,
     0.9195,
     0.0012,
     0.0627,
     0.6175,
     0.3155,
     0.0283,
     0.0952,
     0.734,
     0.7872,
     0.2842,
     0.9173,
     0.2815,
     0.3919,
     0.1492,
     0.2212,
     0.0021,
     0.4962,
     0.7208,
     0.958
    ]
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_08_CHI_SEA",
    "kickoff_at": "2026-11-03T01:15:00Z",
    "neutral_site": false,
    "away": "CHI",
    "home": "SEA",
    "p_home": 0.613,
    "p_source": "nfelo",
    "leverage": 0.495,
    "teams": [
     {
      "team": "SEA",
      "side": "home",
      "p_win": 0.613,
      "now": 0.7208,
      "if_win": 0.8216,
      "if_loss": 0.5613,
      "swing": 0.2604,
      "swing_se": 0.0014
     },
     {
      "team": "CHI",
      "side": "away",
      "p_win": 0.387,
      "now": 0.7339,
      "if_win": 0.8773,
      "if_loss": 0.6427,
      "swing": 0.2346,
      "swing_se": 0.0013
     }
    ],
    "if_home_win": [
     0.965,
     0.0006,
     0.7476,
     0.0091,
     0.487,
     0.8736,
     0.2664,
     0.6031,
     0.32,
     0.0462,
     0.8711,
     0.0003,
     0.8303,
     0.9186,
     0.0011,
     0.0599,
     0.6176,
     0.3148,
     0.0282,
     0.0953,
     0.6427,
     0.7803,
     0.278,
     0.9139,
     0.2807,
     0.3917,
     0.1491,
     0.2211,
     0.0021,
     0.5048,
     0.8216,
     0.9583
    ],
    "if_away_win": [
     0.9651,
     0.0006,
     0.7476,
     0.0091,
     0.4872,
     0.8737,
     0.2666,
     0.6032,
     0.32,
     0.0463,
     0.8711,
     0.0003,
     0.8297,
     0.9186,
     0.0011,
     0.0599,
     0.6177,
     0.3165,
     0.0286,
     0.0955,
     0.8773,
     0.7989,
     0.2935,
     0.9232,
     0.2822,
     0.3925,
     0.1496,
     0.2216,
     0.0022,
     0.482,
     0.5613,
     0.9576
    ]
   },
   {
    "game_id": "2026_08_ATL_TB",
    "kickoff_at": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z",
    "neutral_site": false,
    "away": "ATL",
    "home": "TB",
    "p_home": 0.5947,
    "p_source": "nfelo",
    "leverage": 0.4356,
    "teams": [
     {
      "team": "ATL",
      "side": "away",
      "p_win": 0.4053,
      "now": 0.2814,
      "if_win": 0.4212,
      "if_loss": 0.1858,
      "swing": 0.2353,
      "swing_se": 0.0013
     },
     {
      "team": "TB",
      "side": "home",
      "p_win": 0.5947,
      "now": 0.2212,
      "if_win": 0.3018,
      "if_loss": 0.1015,
      "swing": 0.2003,
      "swing_se": 0.0013
     }
    ],
    "if_home_win": [
     0.965,
     0.0006,
     0.7476,
     0.0091,
     0.4871,
     0.8737,
     0.2666,
     0.6032,
     0.32,
     0.0462,
     0.8711,
     0.0003,
     0.8301,
     0.9186,
     0.0011,
     0.0599,
     0.6176,
     0.3156,
     0.0283,
     0.0953,
     0.734,
     0.7877,
     0.2852,
     0.9178,
     0.1858,
     0.3948,
     0.1566,
     0.3018,
     0.0021,
     0.4977,
     0.7216,
     0.9582
    ],
    "if_away_win": [
     0.9651,
     0.0006,
     0.7476,
     0.0091,
     0.4872,
     0.8735,
     0.2663,
     0.6031,
     0.32,
     0.0462,
     0.8711,
     0.0003,
     0.8302,
     0.9186,
     0.0011,
     0.0599,
     0.6173,
     0.3154,
     0.0284,
     0.0952,
     0.7337,
     0.7862,
     0.2828,
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  ]
 }
}