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},
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},
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},
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"neutral": false
},
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},
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},
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},
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"week": 14,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 14,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"away": "LAC",
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"neutral": false
},
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},
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},
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 15,
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"neutral": false
},
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"away": "BAL",
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},
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"week": 15,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
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"away": "NYJ",
"week": 15,
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"neutral": false
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},
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"week": 15,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 16,
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 16,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
},
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},
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"neutral": false
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"week": 16,
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"week": 16,
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"away": "JAX",
"week": 16,
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 16,
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"neutral": false
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"week": 17,
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 17,
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"week": 17,
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"neutral": false
},
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"neutral": false
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 17,
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"neutral": false
},
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},
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"week": 17,
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"away": "PIT",
"week": 17,
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},
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"neutral": false
},
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"away": "DET",
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},
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},
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"week": 17,
"hfa_elo": 59.925,
"neutral": false
},
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"away": "SF",
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"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_PIT_BAL": {
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"away": "PIT",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 24.4,
"neutral": false
},
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"away": "NYJ",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 24.4,
"neutral": false
},
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"away": "ATL",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 39.900000000000006,
"neutral": false
},
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"away": "CLE",
"week": 18,
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"neutral": false
},
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"away": "LAC",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 47.85,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_DET_GB": {
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"away": "DET",
"week": 18,
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"neutral": false
},
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"week": 18,
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"neutral": false
},
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"home": "IND",
"away": "JAX",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 39.900000000000006,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_LV_KC": {
"home": "KC",
"away": "LV",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 40.300000000000004,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_SEA_LAR": {
"home": "LAR",
"away": "SEA",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 24.4,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_CHI_MIN": {
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"away": "CHI",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 39.900000000000006,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_MIA_NE": {
"home": "NE",
"away": "MIA",
"week": 18,
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"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_TB_NO": {
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"away": "TB",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 31.95,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_PHI_NYG": {
"home": "NYG",
"away": "PHI",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 39.900000000000006,
"neutral": false
},
"2026_18_DAL_WAS": {
"home": "WAS",
"away": "DAL",
"week": 18,
"hfa_elo": 47.85,
"neutral": false
}
},
"assumption": "Current base team strength and QB adjustments held fixed for future games; game-specific HFA from nfelohfa. No extra market regression."
},
"week1": [
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"hwp": 0.8111,
"pick": "LAC",
"p": 0.8111,
"nfelo": {
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"line_close": -9.5,
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"p_home_close": 0.8111,
"cover_home_close": 0.5
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -10,
"line_open_price": [
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-115
],
"line_close": -9.5,
"line_close_price": [
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-107
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"total_open": 47.5,
"total_close": 47.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.8226,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.8111
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX",
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"h": "JAX",
"a": "CLE",
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"hwp": 0.7865,
"pick": "JAX",
"p": 0.7865,
"nfelo": {
"line_open": -8.5,
"line_close": -8.5,
"p_home_open": 0.7865,
"p_home_close": 0.7865,
"cover_home_close": 0.5
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -8.5,
"line_open_price": [
-109,
-111
],
"line_close": -8.5,
"line_close_price": [
-111,
-109
],
"total_open": 40.5,
"total_close": 40.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.7865,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.7865
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_NO_DET",
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"h": "DET",
"a": "NO",
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"hwp": 0.7453,
"pick": "DET",
"p": 0.7453,
"nfelo": {
"line_open": -7,
"line_close": -7,
"p_home_open": 0.7453,
"p_home_close": 0.7453,
"cover_home_close": 0.461
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -7,
"line_open_price": [
-113,
-107
],
"line_close": -7,
"line_close_price": [
-110,
-110
],
"total_open": 49.5,
"total_close": 49.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.7453,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.7453
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_ATL_PIT",
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"h": "PIT",
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"hwp": 0.7149,
"pick": "PIT",
"p": 0.7149,
"nfelo": {
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"line_close": -6,
"p_home_open": 0.6311,
"p_home_close": 0.7149,
"cover_home_close": 0.4726
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -3.5,
"line_open_price": [
-102,
-118
],
"line_close": -6,
"line_close_price": [
-110,
-110
],
"total_open": 42.5,
"total_close": 41.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.6311,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.7151
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_WAS_PHI",
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"a": "WAS",
"spread": -5.5,
"hwp": 0.6992,
"pick": "PHI",
"p": 0.6992,
"nfelo": {
"line_open": -5.5,
"line_close": -5.5,
"p_home_open": 0.6992,
"p_home_close": 0.6992,
"cover_home_close": 0.5
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -5.5,
"line_open_price": [
-108,
-112
],
"line_close": -5.5,
"line_close_price": [
-110,
-110
],
"total_open": 44.5,
"total_close": 44.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.6992,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.6992
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_NE_SEA",
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"spread": -3.5,
"hwp": 0.6311,
"pick": "SEA",
"p": 0.6311,
"nfelo": {
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"line_close": -3.5,
"p_home_open": 0.6311,
"p_home_close": 0.6311,
"cover_home_close": 0.5
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -3.5,
"line_open_price": [
-101,
-112
],
"line_close": -3.5,
"line_close_price": [
-110,
-110
],
"total_open": 44.5,
"total_close": 44.5,
"p_home_implied_open": 0.6311,
"p_home_implied_close": 0.6311
}
},
{
"id": "2026_01_SF_LAR",
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"a": "SF",
"spread": -3.5,
"hwp": 0.6311,
"pick": "LAR",
"p": 0.6311,
"nfelo": {
"line_open": -3.5,
"line_close": -3.5,
"p_home_open": 0.6311,
"p_home_close": 0.6311,
"cover_home_close": 0.5
},
"market": {
"source": "as republished by greerreNFL/nfelo output_data/nfelo_games.csv; book not identified upstream",
"observed_at": "2026-09-11T19:40:44.000Z",
"line_open": -3.5,
"line_open_price": [
-110,
-110
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