{
 "source_page": "/survivor.html",
 "tier": "labs",
 "graded": false,
 "as_of": "2026-09-12",
 "source": "nfelo published forecasts and nfelo-season-v1 parameters; legacy margin diagnostics retained for provenance.",
 "note": "Survivor uses nfelo published probabilities or nfelo-season-v1, not the legacy margin model below. The margin model is a linear Elo-to-points map with a normal residual — it is deliberately simple and its residual SD (13.18) is larger than most people intuit, which is the whole point.",
 "data": {
  "margin_model": {
   "elo_per_point": 23.58,
   "home_field_advantage_points": 2.1,
   "residual_sd_points": 13.18,
   "spread_formula": "expected_margin_home = (elo_home - elo_away) / elo_per_point + hfa",
   "win_prob_formula": "Ratings fallback only: P(home win) = Phi(expected_margin / residual_sd)",
   "backtest": {
    "model_straight_up": 0.6575,
    "blend_straight_up": 0.6674,
    "market_straight_up": 0.6677,
    "caveat": "Backtest, not out-of-sample. The market column is the benchmark that matters."
   }
  },
  "bozo_index": {
   "description": "Standard-deviation table used to measure how far a side finished under its number (\"Worst Beat\"). Not a betting model — a scoring device for the Bozo game.",
   "sd_by_sport": {
    "NFL": {
     "margin": 13.5,
     "total": 10.5
    },
    "CFB": {
     "margin": 16,
     "total": 14
    },
    "NBA": {
     "margin": 11.5,
     "total": 17
    },
    "CBB": {
     "margin": 10.5,
     "total": 13
    },
    "MLB": {
     "margin": 4.4,
     "total": 4.2
    },
    "NHL": {
     "margin": 2.3,
     "total": 2.1
    }
   },
   "prop_sd_caveat": "Props use a placeholder SD of line x 0.55. That is openly a guess. Flag it before leaning on it."
  },
  "survivor_engine": {
   "probability_method": "nfelo-season-v1",
   "season_projection": {
    "z": 401.62,
    "qb_weight": 1,
    "hfa_sha": "14568aec88d746051cc007d1df8d3e0cd8686a42",
    "hfa_committed_at": "2026-09-11T01:02:17-07:00",
    "assumption": "Current base team strength and QB adjustments held fixed for future games; game-specific HFA from nfelohfa. No extra market regression."
   },
   "defaults": {
    "entries": 200,
    "lives": 1,
    "buybacks": false,
    "buyback_through": 4,
    "buyback_rate": 0.35,
    "double_pick_from": 0,
    "reuse_teams": false,
    "start_week": 1,
    "tiebreak": "split",
    "probability_method": "nfelo-season-v1",
    "field_chalk_exponent": 2.4,
    "sims": 3000
   },
   "known_limitation": "Double-pick weeks are recorded but NOT simulated. Every survival number after a double-pick week is too optimistic. Open backlog item.",
   "ownership_note": "Pool ownership is MODELLED (chalk exponent over market win probability), not observed. No real pick data exists yet."
  },
  "nfelo_reference": {
   "version": "4.3.1",
   "commit": "0386d83b",
   "repo": "greerreNFL/nfelo"
  }
 },
 "tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
 "built": "2026-09-12",
 "canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/models.json"
}