{
 "as_of": "2026-08-28",
 "source": "Derived at build time by tools/build-data.js from /data/model-receipts.json, with the pre-registered independence figures cross-checked against /data/ddpr-nfl.json.",
 "tier": "labs",
 "graded": false,
 "note": "The per-model board behind receipts.html#models. Rows and columns are DERIVED from the ledger's distinct model_id values, so registering a new model puts it on the board with no page edit. Per-game spread statistics are computed over the independent lines only -- an ensemble of two models averaged back in with them counts the same two beliefs twice. ddpr-nfl-linear is registered and carries displayed:false; it is published here for completeness and must not be rendered.",
 "data": {
  "models": [
   {
    "model_id": "538-classic",
    "model_name": "538 Classic Elo",
    "model_version": "classic-1.0.0",
    "source_repo": "fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game",
    "methodology_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/538-classic-methodology.md",
    "displayed": true,
    "kind": "primitive",
    "ensemble_of": null,
    "aggregation": null,
    "extremized": false,
    "evidence": "An independent line: its forecasts are not a function of any other model on this board.",
    "games": 272,
    "weeks": 18,
    "receipts": 272,
    "mean_home_win_probability": 0.582931,
    "min_home_win_probability": 0.182773,
    "max_home_win_probability": 0.879901,
    "decisiveness": 0.281198,
    "captured_at": "2026-08-08T00:42:55.946323Z",
    "brier": null,
    "points": null,
    "settled": 0
   },
   {
    "model_id": "nfelo",
    "model_name": "nfelo",
    "model_version": "4.3.0",
    "source_repo": "greerreNFL/nfelo",
    "methodology_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/nfelo.json",
    "displayed": true,
    "kind": "primitive",
    "ensemble_of": null,
    "aggregation": null,
    "extremized": false,
    "evidence": "An independent line: its forecasts are not a function of any other model on this board.",
    "games": 272,
    "weeks": 18,
    "receipts": 272,
    "mean_home_win_probability": 0.562806,
    "min_home_win_probability": 0.3227,
    "max_home_win_probability": 0.806,
    "decisiveness": 0.190111,
    "captured_at": "2026-08-07T00:39:11Z",
    "brier": null,
    "points": null,
    "settled": 0
   },
   {
    "model_id": "ddpr-nfl",
    "model_name": "DDPR NFL (logit mean)",
    "model_version": "logit-1.0.0",
    "source_repo": "JKapcar/data-dawgs",
    "methodology_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/ddpr-methodology.md",
    "displayed": true,
    "kind": "ensemble",
    "ensemble_of": [
     "nfelo",
     "538-classic"
    ],
    "aggregation": "logit_mean",
    "extremized": false,
    "evidence": "Derived from nfelo + 538-classic. Carries no evidence those lines do not already carry.",
    "games": 272,
    "weeks": 18,
    "receipts": 272,
    "mean_home_win_probability": 0.573463,
    "min_home_win_probability": 0.24631,
    "max_home_win_probability": 0.836775,
    "decisiveness": 0.233467,
    "captured_at": "2026-08-08T00:42:55.946323Z",
    "brier": null,
    "points": null,
    "settled": 0
   },
   {
    "model_id": "ddpr-nfl-linear",
    "model_name": "DDPR NFL (linear mean)",
    "model_version": "linear-1.0.0",
    "source_repo": "JKapcar/data-dawgs",
    "methodology_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/ddpr-methodology.md",
    "displayed": false,
    "kind": "ensemble",
    "ensemble_of": [
     "nfelo",
     "538-classic"
    ],
    "aggregation": "linear_mean",
    "extremized": false,
    "evidence": "Derived from nfelo + 538-classic. Carries no evidence those lines do not already carry.",
    "games": 272,
    "weeks": 18,
    "receipts": 272,
    "mean_home_win_probability": 0.572869,
    "min_home_win_probability": 0.252987,
    "max_home_win_probability": 0.830951,
    "decisiveness": 0.231541,
    "captured_at": "2026-08-08T00:42:55.946323Z",
    "brier": null,
    "points": null,
    "settled": 0
   }
  ],
  "panel": {
   "registered_lines": 4,
   "displayed_lines": 3,
   "independent_lines": 2,
   "independent_model_ids": [
    "538-classic",
    "nfelo"
   ],
   "note": "Registered lines are not independent evidence. 2 of 4 lines on this board are independent; the rest are functions of those. Correlations are over LOGITS on prospectively published forecasts and need no resolved games.",
   "pairs": [
    {
     "models": [
      "nfelo",
      "538-classic"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.928307,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.057425
    },
    {
     "models": [
      "nfelo",
      "ddpr-nfl"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.972588,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.029648
    },
    {
     "models": [
      "nfelo",
      "ddpr-nfl-linear"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.974067,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.028713
    },
    {
     "models": [
      "538-classic",
      "ddpr-nfl"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.98932,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.027777
    },
    {
     "models": [
      "538-classic",
      "ddpr-nfl-linear"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.98824,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.028713
    },
    {
     "models": [
      "ddpr-nfl",
      "ddpr-nfl-linear"
     ],
     "games": 272,
     "logit_correlation": 0.999904,
     "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.000963
    }
   ],
   "pre_registration_check": {
    "models": [
     "nfelo",
     "538-classic"
    ],
    "pre_registered_in": "/data/ddpr-nfl.json",
    "pre_registered_logit_correlation": 0.928307,
    "derived_logit_correlation": 0.928307,
    "pre_registered_mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.057425,
    "derived_mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.057425,
    "agrees": true
   }
  },
  "grading": {
   "graded": false,
   "settled": 0,
   "starts": "2026-09-10",
   "note": "No game has kicked off. Brier and points stay null until 2026-09-10. There is no cross-domain blended score here, for the same reason the inventory refuses one."
  },
  "week": {
   "week": 1,
   "games": [
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_MIA_LV",
     "home_team": "LV",
     "away_team": "MIA",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.597,
      "538-classic": 0.435019,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.516441
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.51601,
      "min": 0.435019,
      "max": 0.597,
      "range": 0.161981,
      "standard_deviation": 0.08099,
      "crosses_50": true
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_BUF_HOU",
     "home_team": "HOU",
     "away_team": "BUF",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.444,
      "538-classic": 0.593752,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.51931
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.518876,
      "min": 0.444,
      "max": 0.593752,
      "range": 0.149752,
      "standard_deviation": 0.074876,
      "crosses_50": true
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_DEN_KC",
     "home_team": "KC",
     "away_team": "DEN",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-15T00:15:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.539,
      "538-classic": 0.426854,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.482709
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.482927,
      "min": 0.426854,
      "max": 0.539,
      "range": 0.112146,
      "standard_deviation": 0.056073,
      "crosses_50": true
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_GB_MIN",
     "home_team": "MIN",
     "away_team": "GB",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.527,
      "538-classic": 0.623835,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.576148
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.575418,
      "min": 0.527,
      "max": 0.623835,
      "range": 0.096835,
      "standard_deviation": 0.048418,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_DAL_NYG",
     "home_team": "NYG",
     "away_team": "DAL",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-14T00:20:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.45,
      "538-classic": 0.543708,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.496826
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.496854,
      "min": 0.45,
      "max": 0.543708,
      "range": 0.093708,
      "standard_deviation": 0.046854,
      "crosses_50": true
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_WAS_PHI",
     "home_team": "PHI",
     "away_team": "WAS",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.631,
      "538-classic": 0.71495,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.674373
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.672975,
      "min": 0.631,
      "max": 0.71495,
      "range": 0.08395,
      "standard_deviation": 0.041975,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_NE_SEA",
     "home_team": "SEA",
     "away_team": "NE",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-10T00:20:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.633,
      "538-classic": 0.694318,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.664351
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.663659,
      "min": 0.633,
      "max": 0.694318,
      "range": 0.061318,
      "standard_deviation": 0.030659,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_BAL_IND",
     "home_team": "IND",
     "away_team": "BAL",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.436,
      "538-classic": 0.484375,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.460094
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.460187,
      "min": 0.436,
      "max": 0.484375,
      "range": 0.048375,
      "standard_deviation": 0.024187,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_CLE_JAX",
     "home_team": "JAX",
     "away_team": "CLE",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.722,
      "538-classic": 0.769761,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.746623
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.74588,
      "min": 0.722,
      "max": 0.769761,
      "range": 0.047761,
      "standard_deviation": 0.023881,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_ARI_LAC",
     "home_team": "LAC",
     "away_team": "ARI",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T20:25:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.806,
      "538-classic": 0.759907,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.783842
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.782954,
      "min": 0.759907,
      "max": 0.806,
      "range": 0.046093,
      "standard_deviation": 0.023047,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_TB_CIN",
     "home_team": "CIN",
     "away_team": "TB",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.631,
      "538-classic": 0.592752,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.612049
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.611876,
      "min": 0.592752,
      "max": 0.631,
      "range": 0.038248,
      "standard_deviation": 0.019124,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_ATL_PIT",
     "home_team": "PIT",
     "away_team": "ATL",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.613,
      "538-classic": 0.642434,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.627835
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.627717,
      "min": 0.613,
      "max": 0.642434,
      "range": 0.029434,
      "standard_deviation": 0.014717,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_NYJ_TEN",
     "home_team": "TEN",
     "away_team": "NYJ",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.613,
      "538-classic": 0.58586,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.599506
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.59943,
      "min": 0.58586,
      "max": 0.613,
      "range": 0.02714,
      "standard_deviation": 0.01357,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_CHI_CAR",
     "home_team": "CAR",
     "away_team": "CHI",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.443,
      "538-classic": 0.452296,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.447643
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.447648,
      "min": 0.443,
      "max": 0.452296,
      "range": 0.009296,
      "standard_deviation": 0.004648,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_SF_LAR",
     "home_team": "LAR",
     "away_team": "SF",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-11T00:35:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.579,
      "538-classic": 0.570698,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.574854
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.574849,
      "min": 0.570698,
      "max": 0.579,
      "range": 0.008302,
      "standard_deviation": 0.004151,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    },
    {
     "game_id": "2026_01_NO_DET",
     "home_team": "DET",
     "away_team": "NO",
     "kickoff_at": "2026-09-13T17:00:00Z",
     "beliefs": {
      "nfelo": 0.745,
      "538-classic": 0.741372,
      "ddpr-nfl": 0.74319
     },
     "spread": {
      "over": [
       "538-classic",
       "nfelo"
      ],
      "count": 2,
      "mean": 0.743186,
      "min": 0.741372,
      "max": 0.745,
      "range": 0.003628,
      "standard_deviation": 0.001814,
      "crosses_50": false
     }
    }
   ]
  }
 },
 "tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
 "built": "2026-08-28",
 "canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/model-board.json"
}