{
"source_page": "/teamdraft.html",
"tier": "labs",
"graded": false,
"as_of": "2026-09-12",
"source": "VegasInsider 4-book devigged win totals (2026-08-09) normalized to 272; per-game probabilities refit to those totals over the nflverse 2026 schedule",
"note": "A private eight-person pool: four NFL teams each, all 32 owned, total regular-season wins the only criterion. Expected wins are devigged from four books and normalized to 272; they are NOT the posted lines, and `line` carries those separately. Nothing here is graded — the 2026 season has not started, every wins_tracker row reads zero, and no figure on this surface is a result. `drafters`, `undrafted`, `board` and `diagnostics` are derived from `picks` by scripts/team_draft_pool.py and are rewritten on every run.",
"field_notes": {
"line": "Median posted regular-season win total. Half-point lines are the book's.",
"ew": "Devigged expected wins, normalized so all 32 sum to 272. Not the posted line.",
"sd": "Season win standard deviation from the upstream simulation.",
"dist": "Probability mass by final win count, 0 through 17. Sums to 1 within rounding.",
"schedule": "17 games: week, opponent, home flag, and this team's win probability.",
"schedule[].wp": "The payload's original per-game probability. Coherent game by game; does not re-add to `ew`.",
"schedule[].wpf": "The same game after the schedule was refit onto `ew`. This is what the simulation uses.",
"simulation": "Monte Carlo over `live`, game by game, on top of whatever is banked. Finishing probabilities, not a forecast; nothing graded.",
"schedule[].live": "What this game is worth right now: a settled result, a market price, a model price, or the frozen preseason number. `tier` says which.",
"schedule[].tier": "settled | market | model | preseason. Every game carries its own provenance.",
"teams[].banked": "Wins actually recorded. A tie counts half.",
"teams[].remaining": "Sum of the live probabilities for games not yet played.",
"teams[].projected": "banked + remaining. The in-season number. `ew` stays frozen at the draft-day devig beside it.",
"overlap": "Sparse symmetric head-to-head game counts. 2 = division rival, 1 = other, absent = 0.",
"wins_tracker": "Actual wins, by round, per drafter. Every value is zero — no game has been played.",
"board[].delta": "Chosen team's expected wins minus the best still available. Descriptive, not a grade."
},
"tier_meaning": "Pup — live and useful, not yet validated. It may compute real answers and still have open questions about calibration, assumptions, data quality or edge. Everything starts here.",
"built": "2026-09-12",
"canonical_url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/draft-2026.json",
"data": {
"season": 2026,
"format": {
"drafters": 8,
"teams_per_drafter": 4,
"rounds": 4,
"order": "snake",
"criterion": "total regular-season wins",
"tie_value": 0.5,
"prizes": {
"first": 120,
"second": 40,
"currency": "USD"
},
"tiebreakers": [
"total playoff wins among the four teams",
"total regular-season point differential among the four teams"
]
},
"par": 34.0,
"total_wins": 272,
"draft_order": [
"Matt",
"Rob",
"Kevin",
"Chris",
"Tyler",
"Kap",
"Jared",
"Alan"
],
"teams": {
"ARI": {
"name": "Cardinals",
"division": "NFC West",
"line": 4.0,
"ew": 3.8,
"sd": 2.23,
"dist": {
"0": 0.0253,
"1": 0.0822,
"2": 0.1413,
"3": 0.1718,
"4": 0.1759,
"5": 0.1474,
"6": 0.1075,
"7": 0.0706,
"8": 0.0406,
"9": 0.0209,
"10": 0.0098,
"11": 0.0044,
"12": 0.0017,
"13": 0.0005,
"14": 0.0001,
"15": 0.0,
"16": 0.0,
"17": 0.0
},
"p10": 1,
"p50": 4,
"p90": 7,
"schedule": [
{
"week": 1,
"opp": "LAC",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.0767,
"wpf": 0.07685,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.1889
},
{
"week": 2,
"opp": "SEA",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.1351,
"wpf": 0.13537,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.21965
},
{
"week": 3,
"opp": "SF",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.1005,
"wpf": 0.10057,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.23142
},
{
"week": 4,
"opp": "NYG",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.2494,
"wpf": 0.24939,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.28398
},
{
"week": 5,
"opp": "DET",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.2396,
"wpf": 0.24008,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.29293
},
{
"week": 6,
"opp": "LAR",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.0992,
"wpf": 0.09939,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.14239
},
{
"week": 7,
"opp": "DEN",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.2361,
"wpf": 0.23653,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.29716
},
{
"week": 8,
"opp": "DAL",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.1781,
"wpf": 0.17818,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.19652
},
{
"week": 9,
"opp": "SEA",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.1286,
"wpf": 0.12886,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.1512
},
{
"week": 10,
"opp": "LAR",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.157,
"wpf": 0.15728,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.20782
},
{
"week": 11,
"opp": "KC",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.154,
"wpf": 0.15419,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.16762
},
{
"week": 12,
"opp": "WAS",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3362,
"wpf": 0.33638,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.4238
},
{
"week": 13,
"opp": "PHI",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.2402,
"wpf": 0.24038,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.29597
},
{
"week": 15,
"opp": "NYJ",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5007,
"wpf": 0.5013,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.614
},
{
"week": 16,
"opp": "NO",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.2841,
"wpf": 0.28449,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.32838
},
{
"week": 17,
"opp": "LV",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.4463,
"wpf": 0.44637,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.49651
},
{
"week": 18,
"opp": "SF",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.234,
"wpf": 0.23415,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.28485
}
],
"banked": 0.0,
"remaining": 4.823,
"projected": 4.823
},
"ATL": {
"name": "Falcons",
"division": "NFC South",
"line": 7.5,
"ew": 7.07,
"sd": 2.78,
"dist": {
"0": 0.0021,
"1": 0.0094,
"2": 0.0259,
"3": 0.0515,
"4": 0.0823,
"5": 0.112,
"6": 0.1287,
"7": 0.1364,
"8": 0.1294,
"9": 0.1102,
"10": 0.0862,
"11": 0.0581,
"12": 0.036,
"13": 0.0192,
"14": 0.0086,
"15": 0.003,
"16": 0.0007,
"17": 0.0001
},
"p10": 4,
"p50": 7,
"p90": 11,
"schedule": [
{
"week": 1,
"opp": "PIT",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.3576,
"wpf": 0.35701,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.3018
},
{
"week": 2,
"opp": "CAR",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5214,
"wpf": 0.52096,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.53931
},
{
"week": 3,
"opp": "GB",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.1971,
"wpf": 0.19717,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.24669
},
{
"week": 4,
"opp": "NO",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.4473,
"wpf": 0.4471,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.47302
},
{
"week": 5,
"opp": "BAL",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3502,
"wpf": 0.34953,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.34779
},
{
"week": 6,
"opp": "CHI",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.4368,
"wpf": 0.43694,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.44031
},
{
"week": 7,
"opp": "SF",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3836,
"wpf": 0.38315,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.44476
},
{
"week": 8,
"opp": "TB",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.3875,
"wpf": 0.38726,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.34448
},
{
"week": 9,
"opp": "CIN",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.4223,
"wpf": 0.42186,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.31947
},
{
"week": 10,
"opp": "KC",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3836,
"wpf": 0.3833,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.37535
},
{
"week": 12,
"opp": "MIN",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.3477,
"wpf": 0.34777,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.36355
},
{
"week": 13,
"opp": "DET",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3912,
"wpf": 0.39118,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.34133
},
{
"week": 14,
"opp": "CLE",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5379,
"wpf": 0.53716,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.5193
},
{
"week": 15,
"opp": "WAS",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.3825,
"wpf": 0.38205,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.35599
},
{
"week": 16,
"opp": "TB",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5129,
"wpf": 0.51265,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.45366
},
{
"week": 17,
"opp": "NO",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.574,
"wpf": 0.5738,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.56535
},
{
"week": 18,
"opp": "CAR",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.4412,
"wpf": 0.44077,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.42557
}
],
"banked": 0.0,
"remaining": 6.858,
"projected": 6.858
},
"BAL": {
"name": "Ravens",
"division": "AFC North",
"line": 11.0,
"ew": 10.94,
"sd": 2.66,
"dist": {
"0": 0.0,
"1": 0.0003,
"2": 0.0009,
"3": 0.0032,
"4": 0.009,
"5": 0.0179,
"6": 0.0337,
"7": 0.0558,
"8": 0.0841,
"9": 0.1125,
"10": 0.1339,
"11": 0.145,
"12": 0.137,
"13": 0.1166,
"14": 0.0816,
"15": 0.0463,
"16": 0.0185,
"17": 0.0037
},
"p10": 7,
"p50": 11,
"p90": 14,
"schedule": [
{
"week": 1,
"opp": "IND",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.6728,
"wpf": 0.6729,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.5887
},
{
"week": 2,
"opp": "NO",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.8018,
"wpf": 0.80214,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.80828
},
{
"week": 3,
"opp": "DAL",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5437,
"wpf": 0.5439,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.55543
},
{
"week": 4,
"opp": "TEN",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.7861,
"wpf": 0.78606,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.81464
},
{
"week": 5,
"opp": "ATL",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.6498,
"wpf": 0.65047,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.65221
},
{
"week": 6,
"opp": "CLE",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.736,
"wpf": 0.73599,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.77786
},
{
"week": 7,
"opp": "CIN",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.637,
"wpf": 0.63727,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.56135
},
{
"week": 8,
"opp": "BUF",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.409,
"wpf": 0.40948,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.38453
},
{
"week": 9,
"opp": "JAX",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.6477,
"wpf": 0.64762,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.65436
},
{
"week": 10,
"opp": "LAC",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5943,
"wpf": 0.59488,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.64253
},
{
"week": 11,
"opp": "CAR",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.6541,
"wpf": 0.65437,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.65621
},
{
"week": 12,
"opp": "HOU",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.4638,
"wpf": 0.46374,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.45695
},
{
"week": 14,
"opp": "TB",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.7167,
"wpf": 0.7171,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.70795
},
{
"week": 15,
"opp": "PIT",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5852,
"wpf": 0.58529,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.60047
},
{
"week": 16,
"opp": "CLE",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.8238,
"wpf": 0.8238,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.82244
},
{
"week": 17,
"opp": "CIN",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5126,
"wpf": 0.51289,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.49684
},
{
"week": 18,
"opp": "PIT",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.7017,
"wpf": 0.70178,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.66534
}
],
"banked": 0.0,
"remaining": 10.846,
"projected": 10.846
},
"BUF": {
"name": "Bills",
"division": "AFC East",
"line": 10.5,
"ew": 10.76,
"sd": 2.64,
"dist": {
"0": 0.0,
"1": 0.0002,
"2": 0.001,
"3": 0.0034,
"4": 0.0086,
"5": 0.0201,
"6": 0.0367,
"7": 0.0602,
"8": 0.0892,
"9": 0.118,
"10": 0.1368,
"11": 0.1463,
"12": 0.135,
"13": 0.1095,
"14": 0.0749,
"15": 0.0411,
"16": 0.0158,
"17": 0.003
},
"p10": 7,
"p50": 11,
"p90": 14,
"schedule": [
{
"week": 1,
"opp": "HOU",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5156,
"wpf": 0.51505,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.5477
},
{
"week": 2,
"opp": "DET",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.6297,
"wpf": 0.62991,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.59113
},
{
"week": 3,
"opp": "LAC",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5548,
"wpf": 0.55491,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.69523
},
{
"week": 4,
"opp": "NE",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.6291,
"wpf": 0.62911,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.57189
},
{
"week": 5,
"opp": "LAR",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.3796,
"wpf": 0.37969,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.3603
},
{
"week": 6,
"opp": "LV",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.726,
"wpf": 0.72571,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.66393
},
{
"week": 8,
"opp": "BAL",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.591,
"wpf": 0.59052,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.61547
},
{
"week": 9,
"opp": "MIN",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5894,
"wpf": 0.58971,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.54404
},
{
"week": 10,
"opp": "NYJ",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.7677,
"wpf": 0.76782,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.77665
},
{
"week": 11,
"opp": "MIA",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.8756,
"wpf": 0.87552,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.85061
},
{
"week": 12,
"opp": "KC",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.6256,
"wpf": 0.62553,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.6048
},
{
"week": 13,
"opp": "NE",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5046,
"wpf": 0.50461,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.50245
},
{
"week": 14,
"opp": "GB",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5353,
"wpf": 0.53566,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.47744
},
{
"week": 15,
"opp": "CHI",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.6755,
"wpf": 0.67583,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.66707
},
{
"week": 16,
"opp": "DEN",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5038,
"wpf": 0.50396,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.46992
},
{
"week": 17,
"opp": "MIA",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.8065,
"wpf": 0.80638,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.78277
},
{
"week": 18,
"opp": "NYJ",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.8497,
"wpf": 0.84978,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.82143
}
],
"banked": 0.0,
"remaining": 10.543,
"projected": 10.543
},
"CAR": {
"name": "Panthers",
"division": "NFC South",
"line": 7.0,
"ew": 7.09,
"sd": 2.78,
"dist": {
"0": 0.0018,
"1": 0.0091,
"2": 0.0261,
"3": 0.0515,
"4": 0.0807,
"5": 0.1105,
"6": 0.1297,
"7": 0.1353,
"8": 0.1299,
"9": 0.1124,
"10": 0.0854,
"11": 0.0591,
"12": 0.0362,
"13": 0.0197,
"14": 0.0087,
"15": 0.003,
"16": 0.0008,
"17": 0.0001
},
"p10": 4,
"p50": 7,
"p90": 11,
"schedule": [
{
"week": 1,
"opp": "CHI",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3997,
"wpf": 0.40025,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.387
},
{
"week": 2,
"opp": "ATL",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.4786,
"wpf": 0.47904,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.46069
},
{
"week": 3,
"opp": "CLE",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.5973,
"wpf": 0.59701,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.55904
},
{
"week": 4,
"opp": "DET",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3867,
"wpf": 0.3871,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.37817
},
{
"week": 6,
"opp": "PHI",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.2744,
"wpf": 0.27441,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.31133
},
{
"week": 7,
"opp": "TB",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.5082,
"wpf": 0.50839,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.44928
},
{
"week": 8,
"opp": "GB",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.2964,
"wpf": 0.29686,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.27762
},
{
"week": 9,
"opp": "DEN",
"home": true,
"wp": 0.3822,
"wpf": 0.38253,
"tier": "model",
"settled": false,
"live": 0.42685
},
{
"week": 10,
"opp": "NO",
"home": false,
"wp": 0.4427,
"wpf": 0.44293,
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"ew": 32.14,
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"remaining": 33.564,
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"par_delta": -1.86,
"internal_games": 2,
"sd_sim": 4.58,
"sd_model": 5.36,
"picks_remaining": 0
},
"Tyler": {
"slot": 5,
"roster": [
"DET",
"SF",
"IND",
"CAR"
],
"ew": 35.59,
"banked": 1.0,
"remaining": 35.339,
"projected": 36.339,
"par_delta": 1.59,
"internal_games": 1,
"sd_sim": 4.7,
"sd_model": 5.372,
"picks_remaining": 0
},
"Kap": {
"slot": 6,
"roster": [
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"CIN",
"MIN",
"WAS"
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"ew": 36.78,
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"par_delta": 2.78,
"internal_games": 3,
"sd_sim": 4.76,
"sd_model": 5.352,
"picks_remaining": 0
},
"Jared": {
"slot": 7,
"roster": [
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"KC",
"NYG",
"ATL"
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"ew": 33.67,
"banked": 0.0,
"remaining": 33.383,
"projected": 33.383,
"par_delta": -0.33,
"internal_games": 3,
"sd_sim": 4.46,
"sd_model": 5.296,
"picks_remaining": 0
},
"Alan": {
"slot": 8,
"roster": [
"NE",
"DEN",
"ARI",
"TEN"
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"ew": 29.85,
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"remaining": 29.833,
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"par_delta": -4.15,
"internal_games": 2,
"sd_sim": 5.08,
"sd_model": 5.077,
"picks_remaining": 0
}
},
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"board": [
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"pick": 1,
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"drafter": "Matt",
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{
"pick": 2,
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"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
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{
"pick": 3,
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"drafter": "Kevin",
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"best_available_ew": 10.76,
"delta": 0.0,
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"available_at_pick": 30
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{
"pick": 4,
"round": 1,
"drafter": "Chris",
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"rank_at_pick": 6,
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{
"pick": 5,
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"drafter": "Tyler",
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"best_available_ew": 10.68,
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"rank_at_pick": 1,
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{
"pick": 6,
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{
"pick": 7,
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"drafter": "Jared",
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{
"pick": 8,
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"drafter": "Alan",
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"available_at_pick": 25
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{
"pick": 9,
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"drafter": "Alan",
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{
"pick": 10,
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{
"pick": 11,
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{
"pick": 12,
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{
"pick": 13,
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"available_at_pick": 20
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{
"pick": 14,
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"drafter": "Kevin",
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"delta": -0.3,
"rank_at_pick": 3,
"available_at_pick": 19
},
{
"pick": 15,
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"drafter": "Rob",
"team": "LAC",
"ew": 9.9,
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"best_available_ew": 9.96,
"delta": -0.06,
"rank_at_pick": 2,
"available_at_pick": 18
},
{
"pick": 16,
"round": 2,
"drafter": "Matt",
"team": "HOU",
"ew": 9.96,
"best_available": "HOU",
"best_available_ew": 9.96,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 17
},
{
"pick": 17,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Matt",
"team": "NO",
"ew": 7.64,
"best_available": "CHI",
"best_available_ew": 9.25,
"delta": -1.61,
"rank_at_pick": 6,
"available_at_pick": 16
},
{
"pick": 18,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Rob",
"team": "CHI",
"ew": 9.25,
"best_available": "CHI",
"best_available_ew": 9.25,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 15
},
{
"pick": 19,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Kevin",
"team": "JAX",
"ew": 9.03,
"best_available": "JAX",
"best_available_ew": 9.03,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 14
},
{
"pick": 20,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Chris",
"team": "PIT",
"ew": 8.14,
"best_available": "MIN",
"best_available_ew": 8.52,
"delta": -0.38,
"rank_at_pick": 2,
"available_at_pick": 13
},
{
"pick": 21,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Tyler",
"team": "IND",
"ew": 7.8,
"best_available": "MIN",
"best_available_ew": 8.52,
"delta": -0.72,
"rank_at_pick": 2,
"available_at_pick": 12
},
{
"pick": 22,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Kap",
"team": "MIN",
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"best_available": "MIN",
"best_available_ew": 8.52,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 11
},
{
"pick": 23,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Jared",
"team": "NYG",
"ew": 7.39,
"best_available": "WAS",
"best_available_ew": 7.62,
"delta": -0.23,
"rank_at_pick": 2,
"available_at_pick": 10
},
{
"pick": 24,
"round": 3,
"drafter": "Alan",
"team": "ARI",
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"best_available_ew": 7.62,
"delta": -3.82,
"rank_at_pick": 9,
"available_at_pick": 9
},
{
"pick": 25,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Alan",
"team": "TEN",
"ew": 6.43,
"best_available": "WAS",
"best_available_ew": 7.62,
"delta": -1.19,
"rank_at_pick": 4,
"available_at_pick": 8
},
{
"pick": 26,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Jared",
"team": "ATL",
"ew": 7.07,
"best_available": "WAS",
"best_available_ew": 7.62,
"delta": -0.55,
"rank_at_pick": 3,
"available_at_pick": 7
},
{
"pick": 27,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Kap",
"team": "WAS",
"ew": 7.62,
"best_available": "WAS",
"best_available_ew": 7.62,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 6
},
{
"pick": 28,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Tyler",
"team": "CAR",
"ew": 7.09,
"best_available": "CAR",
"best_available_ew": 7.09,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 5
},
{
"pick": 29,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Chris",
"team": "LV",
"ew": 5.98,
"best_available": "LV",
"best_available_ew": 5.98,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 4
},
{
"pick": 30,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Kevin",
"team": "MIA",
"ew": 3.92,
"best_available": "CLE",
"best_available_ew": 5.65,
"delta": -1.73,
"rank_at_pick": 3,
"available_at_pick": 3
},
{
"pick": 31,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Rob",
"team": "NYJ",
"ew": 5.54,
"best_available": "CLE",
"best_available_ew": 5.65,
"delta": -0.11,
"rank_at_pick": 2,
"available_at_pick": 2
},
{
"pick": 32,
"round": 4,
"drafter": "Matt",
"team": "CLE",
"ew": 5.65,
"best_available": "CLE",
"best_available_ew": 5.65,
"delta": 0.0,
"rank_at_pick": 1,
"available_at_pick": 1
}
],
"picks_made": 32,
"picks_total": 32,
"basis": {
"mode": "in-season",
"settled_games": 2,
"total_games": 272,
"tiers": {
"settled": 4,
"market": 0,
"model": 540,
"preseason": 0
},
"resolution": [
"settled — the game was played; banked, not projected",
"market — unplayed with a real price; market primacy does not lapse in-season",
"model — beyond the market's horizon",
"preseason — the frozen 2026-08-09 devigged total, refit onto expected wins"
],
"feeds": {
"results": "/data/nfl-schedule.json",
"prices": "/data/survivor.json"
},
"switch": "data-driven: one settled game anywhere flips the payload to the composite. No date is hardcoded.",
"field": "live"
},
"schedule_fit": {
"method": "per-team logit offsets solved by Newton so each team's 17 fitted game probabilities sum to its expected wins; complementarity and the 272-win league total hold by construction",
"residual": 0.00033578,
"iterations": 60,
"field": "wpf"
},
"simulation": {
"trials": 100000,
"seed": 20260812,
"method": "game-level Bernoulli over the refitted schedule; one win per game, so every simulated season pays exactly 272",
"tie_for_first_rate": 0.13339,
"no_tie_outcome": true,
"first_place_ties_broken": "at random — the league's real tiebreakers (playoff wins, then point differential) are not in this payload",
"drafters": {
"Matt": {
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"p_second": 0.09214,
"p_top2": 0.14514,
"mean": 32.927,
"sd": 3.741,
"p10": 28.0,
"p50": 33.0,
"p90": 38.0,
"dist": {
"17": 2e-05,
"18": 1e-05,
"19": 0.00012,
"20": 0.00021,
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"24": 0.006,
"25": 0.01128,
"26": 0.01907,
"27": 0.03086,
"28": 0.04537,
"29": 0.06141,
"30": 0.07861,
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"32": 0.10325,
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"34": 0.10282,
"35": 0.09055,
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"39": 0.02857,
"40": 0.01853,
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"42": 0.00528,
"43": 0.00295,
"44": 0.0014,
"45": 0.00055,
"46": 0.00019,
"47": 7e-05,
"48": 2e-05,
"49": 1e-05,
"50": 1e-05
}
},
"Rob": {
"p_first": 0.08814,
"p_second": 0.13601,
"p_top2": 0.22415,
"mean": 34.191,
"sd": 3.713,
"p10": 29.0,
"p50": 34.0,
"p90": 39.0,
"dist": {
"17": 1e-05,
"19": 3e-05,
"20": 4e-05,
"21": 0.00013,
"22": 0.00054,
"23": 0.00102,
"24": 0.00227,
"25": 0.00499,
"26": 0.00944,
"27": 0.01707,
"28": 0.02729,
"29": 0.04004,
"30": 0.05721,
"31": 0.07366,
"32": 0.09109,
"33": 0.1014,
"34": 0.10637,
"35": 0.1049,
"36": 0.09643,
"37": 0.0807,
"38": 0.06304,
"39": 0.04581,
"40": 0.03207,
"41": 0.01992,
"42": 0.01229,
"43": 0.00642,
"44": 0.0034,
"45": 0.00139,
"46": 0.00068,
"47": 0.00017,
"48": 0.00014,
"49": 3e-05,
"51": 1e-05
}
},
"Kevin": {
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"p_second": 0.10503,
"p_top2": 0.16601,
"mean": 33.404,
"sd": 3.65,
"p10": 29.0,
"p50": 33.0,
"p90": 38.0,
"dist": {
"18": 2e-05,
"19": 5e-05,
"20": 0.00013,
"21": 0.00031,
"22": 0.00077,
"23": 0.00176,
"24": 0.00393,
"25": 0.00747,
"26": 0.01404,
"27": 0.02383,
"28": 0.0375,
"29": 0.05262,
"30": 0.07109,
"31": 0.08719,
"32": 0.10078,
"33": 0.10966,
"34": 0.10736,
"35": 0.09789,
"36": 0.08489,
"37": 0.06757,
"38": 0.05069,
"39": 0.03467,
"40": 0.02028,
"41": 0.01244,
"42": 0.00688,
"43": 0.00352,
"44": 0.0015,
"45": 0.00073,
"46": 0.00028,
"47": 0.0001,
"48": 5e-05
}
},
"Chris": {
"p_first": 0.07259,
"p_second": 0.1133,
"p_top2": 0.18589,
"mean": 33.571,
"sd": 3.817,
"p10": 29.0,
"p50": 34.0,
"p90": 38.0,
"dist": {
"16": 1e-05,
"17": 1e-05,
"18": 1e-05,
"19": 5e-05,
"20": 0.00022,
"21": 0.00052,
"22": 0.00096,
"23": 0.00219,
"24": 0.00458,
"25": 0.0086,
"26": 0.01471,
"27": 0.02389,
"28": 0.03602,
"29": 0.05101,
"30": 0.06612,
"31": 0.08424,
"32": 0.09585,
"33": 0.10359,
"34": 0.10346,
"35": 0.09723,
"36": 0.08622,
"37": 0.06886,
"38": 0.05423,
"39": 0.03773,
"40": 0.02538,
"41": 0.01588,
"42": 0.00932,
"43": 0.00463,
"44": 0.00241,
"45": 0.00128,
"46": 0.00045,
"47": 0.00023,
"48": 8e-05,
"49": 1e-05,
"50": 1e-05,
"51": 1e-05
}
},
"Tyler": {
"p_first": 0.22507,
"p_second": 0.20513,
"p_top2": 0.4302,
"mean": 36.323,
"sd": 3.854,
"p10": 31.0,
"p50": 36.0,
"p90": 41.0,
"dist": {
"16": 1e-05,
"20": 1e-05,
"21": 4e-05,
"22": 3e-05,
"23": 0.00024,
"24": 0.00058,
"25": 0.00141,
"26": 0.0029,
"27": 0.00608,
"28": 0.01006,
"29": 0.01708,
"30": 0.0274,
"31": 0.03898,
"32": 0.05497,
"33": 0.07137,
"34": 0.08663,
"35": 0.09741,
"36": 0.10299,
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"40": 0.06534,
"41": 0.04924,
"42": 0.03499,
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"44": 0.01442,
"45": 0.00811,
"46": 0.00448,
"47": 0.00204,
"48": 0.001,
"49": 0.00043,
"50": 9e-05,
"51": 8e-05,
"52": 1e-05
}
},
"Kap": {
"p_first": 0.42576,
"p_second": 0.21962,
"p_top2": 0.64538,
"mean": 38.397,
"sd": 3.728,
"p10": 34.0,
"p50": 38.0,
"p90": 43.0,
"dist": {
"23": 2e-05,
"24": 6e-05,
"25": 0.00015,
"26": 0.00045,
"27": 0.00092,
"28": 0.00261,
"29": 0.00463,
"30": 0.0085,
"31": 0.01503,
"32": 0.02478,
"33": 0.0373,
"34": 0.05285,
"35": 0.07074,
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"49": 0.00153,
"50": 0.00078,
"51": 0.00031,
"52": 0.00012,
"53": 4e-05,
"54": 2e-05
}
},
"Jared": {
"p_first": 0.06566,
"p_second": 0.10479,
"p_top2": 0.17045,
"mean": 33.367,
"sd": 3.723,
"p10": 29.0,
"p50": 33.0,
"p90": 38.0,
"dist": {
"16": 1e-05,
"18": 1e-05,
"19": 5e-05,
"20": 0.0001,
"21": 0.0004,
"22": 0.00131,
"23": 0.0021,
"24": 0.00446,
"25": 0.00839,
"26": 0.01458,
"27": 0.02528,
"28": 0.03869,
"29": 0.05428,
"30": 0.07042,
"31": 0.08901,
"32": 0.09918,
"33": 0.10588,
"34": 0.10416,
"35": 0.09884,
"36": 0.08309,
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"38": 0.04928,
"39": 0.03308,
"40": 0.02231,
"41": 0.01347,
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"43": 0.00396,
"44": 0.00165,
"45": 0.00077,
"46": 0.00024,
"47": 8e-05,
"48": 3e-05
}
},
"Alan": {
"p_first": 0.0088,
"p_second": 0.02398,
"p_top2": 0.03278,
"mean": 29.821,
"sd": 3.641,
"p10": 25.0,
"p50": 30.0,
"p90": 34.0,
"dist": {
"14": 3e-05,
"15": 5e-05,
"16": 4e-05,
"17": 0.00021,
"18": 0.0004,
"19": 0.00117,
"20": 0.00275,
"21": 0.00564,
"22": 0.01069,
"23": 0.0195,
"24": 0.03071,
"25": 0.04678,
"26": 0.06408,
"27": 0.07953,
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"29": 0.10643,
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"35": 0.04005,
"36": 0.02573,
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"40": 0.002,
"41": 0.001,
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"43": 0.00026,
"44": 9e-05
}
}
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"checked_at_as_of": "2026-09-11",
"hard_failures": [],
"checks": [
{
"id": "ew_sum",
"label": "Expected wins sum to 272",
"ok": true,
"detail": "272.01 against a league total of 272. The teams carry two decimals each, so a drift of a hundredth or two is the rounding and nothing else; anything larger means the devig was not renormalized.",
"value": 272.01,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "team_count",
"label": "32 teams, 4 per division",
"ok": true,
"detail": "32 teams across 8 divisions.",
"value": 32,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "overlap",
"label": "Head-to-head matrix is symmetric and complete",
"ok": true,
"detail": "0 asymmetric entries, 272 games total (expect 272), 0 teams not playing exactly 17.",
"value": 272,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "schedule_pairs",
"label": "Every game's two win probabilities sum to 1",
"ok": true,
"detail": "0 games where the two sides do not complement. The schedule is one coherent set of games, not 32 independent lists.",
"value": 0,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "schedule_vs_ew",
"label": "The supplied game probabilities re-add to expected wins",
"ok": true,
"detail": "Summing a team's 17 supplied probabilities lands at most 0.0050 wins from its expected-wins figure (worst: ATL). That is four-decimal rounding across 17 games, not a disagreement — the ladder and the schedule strip are one number.",
"value": 0.005,
"severity": "known"
},
{
"id": "dist_vs_ew",
"label": "Win distributions run above expected wins at the bottom of the board",
"ok": false,
"detail": "The mean of the 0-17 distribution sits up to 0.36 wins from expected wins (MIA). The gap is positive for the worst teams and negative for the best, which is what truncation at 0 and 17 does to a distribution built around a mean near the edge. The curves are the shape of a season, not a second estimate of its total.",
"value": 0.36,
"severity": "known"
},
{
"id": "dist_mass",
"label": "Each win distribution sums to 1",
"ok": true,
"detail": "Worst total mass is off by 0.00020 — four-decimal rounding across 18 buckets.",
"value": 0.0002,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "picks",
"label": "The draft log is a valid snake",
"ok": true,
"detail": "32 of 32 picks recorded. 0 out of turn, 0 teams taken twice, 0 unknown abbreviations.",
"value": 32,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "conservation",
"label": "Rostered wins plus the pool still add to the league total",
"ok": true,
"detail": "272.01 on rosters, 0.00 still on the board, 272.01 together. With every pick made, the eight roster totals must sum to 272 and one drafter's gain is another's loss — that is the whole game.",
"value": 272.01,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "schedule_fit",
"label": "The refitted schedule does re-add to expected wins",
"ok": true,
"detail": "Solved in 60 Newton steps; the worst team is now 0.0003 wins from its expected-wins figure, against 0.00 before the refit. The residual cannot reach zero: the 32 expected-win values sum to 272.01 rather than 272, and a schedule of whole games always pays exactly 272, so that one hundredth has to live somewhere. `wp` is untouched — `wpf` sits beside it and the simulation uses only `wpf`.",
"value": 0.0003,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "sim_vs_ladder",
"label": "Simulated roster totals land on each roster's projected total",
"ok": true,
"detail": "Across 100,000 simulated seasons the worst roster mean sits 0.019 wins from its projected total. That agreement is the refit and the banked floor working together — simulating the raw preseason schedule instead would have put a roster up to 2.7 wins away from the number printed on its own card, and re-simulating settled games would widen every range for the rest of the season.",
"value": 0.019,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "tie_rate",
"label": "A tie for first is common, and this payload cannot break one",
"ok": true,
"detail": "13.3% of simulated seasons end with two or more rosters level at the top — roughly one in 7. The league breaks that on total playoff wins and then point differential; neither is in this payload, so the simulation breaks it at random and the page reports the rate instead of pretending to a winner. The simulation also has no tie OUTCOME: every game is decided, so no half-wins are produced.",
"value": 0.13339,
"severity": "info"
},
{
"id": "sim_rosters_complete",
"label": "The simulation is running on complete rosters",
"ok": true,
"detail": "Every roster has all four teams, so the finishing probabilities are about the league as drafted.",
"value": 0,
"severity": "known"
},
{
"id": "live_conservation",
"label": "Banked plus projected still totals the season",
"ok": true,
"detail": "2.00 banked + 270.00 projected = 272.00 against 272. 2 of 272 games are played. Per-game basis: settled 4, model 540.",
"value": 272.001,
"severity": "hard"
},
{
"id": "basis_mode",
"label": "The payload is in in-season mode",
"ok": true,
"detail": "2 games are settled and banked. Unplayed games take a real price where one exists (0 of them) and the model beyond that (540). Expected wins on the ladder stay frozen at the draft-day devig — the board's reach and value are claims about that day and recomputing them against live ratings would make them retroactively wrong.",
"value": 2,
"severity": "info"
},
{
"id": "sd_models",
"label": "Two roster standard deviations, and they disagree",
"ok": true,
"detail": "The upstream simulation and the quadrature-plus-head-to-head calculation sit within 0.84 wins of each other (worst: Jared). They diverge most for rosters with internal games, and the simulation is the smaller of the two — it also draws correlated team strength, which quadrature cannot see. The page shows the simulated figure wherever it exists and says when it is falling back.",
"value": 0.836,
"severity": "info"
}
]
}
}
}