{ "source_page": "/receipts.html", "tier": "labs", "graded": false, "as_of": "2026-08-08", "source": "Data Dawgs Power Rank: an explicit ensemble of the prospective model lines in /data/model-receipts.json. Not a novel model.", "note": "DDPR is a FUNCTION of its inputs, so it is not independent evidence — a board showing nfelo, 538 Classic and DDPR shows two sources, not three. Two aggregations are pre-registered before any game is played: the log-odds average is displayed and the linear average is carried ungraded so the season-end comparison is not model-shopping. No extremizing. Nothing is graded: the 2026 season starts 2026-09-10.", "methodology": { "displayed": "inverse_logit(mean(logit(p_i)))", "also_registered": "mean(p_i)", "rounding": "6 decimal places, ROUND_HALF_UP", "extremizing": "none, by decision — the inputs are not independent enough", "url": "https://datadawgs216.com/data/ddpr-methodology.md" }, "independence": { "games": 272, "note": "Correlation of LOGITS between input models, computed on prospective forecasts alone. High correlation means the ensemble carries less independent evidence than its member count suggests.", "pairs": [ { "models": [ "nfelo", "538-classic" ], "logit_correlation": 0.928307, "mean_absolute_probability_gap": 0.057425 } ] }, "integrity": { "input_snapshot_id": "sha256:afc11fc93089cb6709464209a6fbc868bb95f6478365c1264f46f99ce1afa633", "snapshot_id": "sha256:49ed874e5f4c9e7fd5732fa1c5a5e5400d816ad5abe6272b3211049dd29b19a6", "forecast_rows": 272, "input_model_count": 2 }, "provenance": { "source_repo": "JKapcar/data-dawgs", "source_commit": "706177db2bbdbf4b3e0bc62966a1f65e7d77fc34", "schedule_snapshot_id": "sha256:d8b1f35cea30ff0a26278b04232f536e8d733a6e06b61c8bf56e409a28b8a80f", "inputs_from": "/data/model-receipts.json" }, "data": { "model_id": "ddpr-nfl", "model_name": "DDPR NFL", "model_version": "1.0.0", "displayed_aggregation": "logit_mean", "input_model_ids": [ "nfelo", "538-classic" ], "extremized": false, "forecasts": [ { "game_id": "2026_01_ARI_LAC", "season": 2026, 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