--- title: Bozo — ruleset and design rationale as_of: 2026-08-06 source: bozo.html on datadawgs216.com canonical_url: https://datadawgs216.com/data/bozo-rules.md data: https://datadawgs216.com/data/bozo-rules.json --- # Bozo A weekly group betting game. Each member submits **one leg**. Every leg goes on **one real parlay**, funded by last week's bozo. Whoever busts it worst wears it and funds the next ticket. ## Rules - Favorites only, inside the league's price band (default −100 to −500, American odds). - No exact duplicate legs. - The ticket **locks the moment the last leg lands**. That moment is the close. - Editing a leg resets both your timestamp **and** your price. - Only legs that **lost** are eligible to be the bozo. Nobody who cashed can wear it, no matter how bad the price was. ## The tiebreaker Each week the tiebreaker hierarchy is a **fresh random permutation** of the league's live levers, drawn on the server and written once. It is not a weighted score and not a fixed cascade. Walk the drawn order; the first lever that isolates one person names the bozo; ties fall to the next lever down. The four levers: | Lever | Meaning | |---|---| | Shortest Odds | biggest favorite in the pool | | Worst Beat | finished furthest under its number, in standard deviations | | Last In | final leg submitted | | Worst CLV | price moved most against it | **Why randomized:** it keeps each lever legible while making the meta unsolvable. A weighted composite was considered and rejected — any blend is just a new deterministic objective someone will solve. ## The board is open on purpose Every leg, price and timestamp is visible to everyone, and to everyone's bots, before they place. That was a decision, not an oversight. *Last In* already taxes the last-mover information advantage, and the randomized permutation means knowing the field doesn't hand you the answer. Blind submission was considered and rejected. ## Trust model - Every **write** goes through the Worker, which stamps server time, maps join token to player, enforces the price band, rejects duplicates, and draws the tiebreaker permutation. - Identity is a one-time join token. There are no accounts. - Nothing in the browser is load-bearing for fairness. Forging the whole page still doesn't let you write a pick. ## What this system does NOT verify Read this before quoting anything off the board. - **Every price is self-reported.** Nothing checks it against a book. Report what was entered, flag what looks off market, never vouch for a number and never accuse anyone. A spread or total priced past about −145 is off market and worth mentioning. A moneyline has no internal cross-check at all. - **Bozo odds and leg-win numbers are simulation output, not observation.** Say so when quoting them. - **The simulation draws every leg independently.** Two legs on the same game are not independent; the cash probability is wrong in a knowable direction when that happens. - **Worst CLV is unmeasured.** No closing prices are captured yet. Never state anyone's CLV; the simulation treats it as a coin flip among whoever is still tied. - **Prop legs use a placeholder SD** of line × 0.55. That is openly a guess. Flag a prop before leaning on its Worst Beat exposure. Nothing here is betting advice, no bet is guaranteed, and no bot may place, edit or remove anyone's leg.