{ "title": "Bozo Menu · Oct 29 NFL/CFB research refresh · exact-price validation pending", "week": "2026-10-26", "revision": 4, "published_at": "2026-10-29T14:50:25.376Z", "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T08:26:38.398Z", "status": "published", "scope": "Public Data Dawgs research. Saved quotes, not guaranteed current offers. No contest picks submitted.", "candidates": [ { "event": "Delaware at Western Kentucky", "id": "cfb-20261027-del-wku-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:00:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 1, "reason": "Retired: this game began Oct27; no upcoming entry or current-price claim. Prior research and full source history remain in the audit revision.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Western Kentucky", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Delaware at Western Kentucky", "id": "cfb-20261027-del-wku-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T19:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 2, "reason": "Retired: this game began Oct27; no upcoming entry or current-price claim. Prior research and full source history remain in the audit revision.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under — current line and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Sam Houston at Missouri State", "id": "cfb-20261027-shsu-most-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T20:05:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 3, "reason": "Retired: this game began Oct27; no upcoming entry or current-price claim. Prior research and full source history remain in the audit revision.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Missouri State — price-rejection watch", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Sam Houston at Missouri State", "id": "cfb-20261027-shsu-most-myers", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T20:05:00-04:00", "market": "receiving yards", "rank": 4, "reason": "Retired: this game began Oct27; no upcoming entry or current-price claim. Prior research and full source history remain in the audit revision.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Isaiah Myers alternate receiving yards — rung and price required", "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Sam Houston at Missouri State", "id": "cfb-20261027-shsu-most-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-27T20:05:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 5, "reason": "Retired: this game began Oct27; no upcoming entry or current-price claim. Prior research and full source history remain in the audit revision.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Sam Houston plus points — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Jacksonville State at New Mexico State", "id": "cfb-20261028-jaxst-nmsu-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-28T20:00:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 6, "reason": "Retired from upcoming research: scheduled kickoff has passed. No result or settlement implied. Preserve prior research in revision history.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Jacksonville State moneyline — spread/alternate family", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:59:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model lines (published Oct 26", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:03:00Z", "name": "NM State official Oct 21 recap (observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://nmstatesports.com/news/2026/10/21/football-nm-state-outlasts-sam-houston-in-wednesday-night-win.aspx" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:03:00Z", "name": "NM State official 2026 schedule (observed)", "url": "https://nmstatesports.com/schedule.aspx?path=football&season=2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Jacksonville State at New Mexico State", "id": "cfb-20261028-jaxst-nmsu-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-28T20:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 7, "reason": "Retired from upcoming research: scheduled kickoff has passed. No result or settlement implied. Preserve prior research in revision history.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 49.5 — opposing-model hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:52Z", "name": "BetSharp named-book observation; book quote date unknown", "url": "https://betsharp.com/ncaaf/game/2026-10-28-jacksonville-state-gamecocks-at-new-mexico-state-aggies" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:03:00Z", "name": "NM State official Oct21 recap; prior start, not current clearance", "url": "https://nmstatesports.com/news/2026/10/21/football-nm-state-outlasts-sam-houston-in-wednesday-night-win.aspx" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "scratch", "quote_state": "Scratched" }, { "event": "Florida Atlantic at North Texas", "id": "cfb-20261029-fau-unt-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-29T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 8, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Model conflict persists: PFF favors North Texas at its consensus spread, whereas SP+ projects only a 5.3-point margin and 63% win probability. PFF consensus moneyline is outside the preferred -200 to -500 band. Do not treat a heavily favored win as value.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "North Texas moneyline — model-conflict / price hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:00:00Z", "name": "Circa Week 9 PDF (dated Oct 26, 8:39 AM; timezone unstated", "url": "https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9clr2jrvjbdfmn6pe7wzg/AIko5lXuRnsrAP8e7W4i8HE?dl=0&e=2&preview=CFB+Week+9+-+2026.pdf&rlkey=oq3gvnmsmcinl1ixioffnvjcb" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:03:00Z", "name": "North Texas official FAU preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://meangreensports.com/news/2026/10/26/football-unt-hosting-fau-on-espn-in-national-spotlight" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:52Z", "name": "BetSharp named-book observation; book quote date unknown", "url": "https://betsharp.com/ncaaf/game/2026-10-29-florida-atlantic-owls-at-north-texas-mean-green" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Florida Atlantic at North Texas", "id": "cfb-20261029-fau-unt-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-29T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 9, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Both models lean under, but price/threshold freshness is material: SP+ implies 65.6 total and its market cell now says 73.5; PFF screen still 77.5. This disagreement prevents treating either as an executable offer. Compare the exact available alternate total, not the main-line model edge. Preserve the earlier 77.5 quote as historical only. Official FAU preview highlights both offenses top20 in scoring/pass/total offense; this is contrary tail-risk evidence. NWS Denton light wind, rain mainly after 1 AM does not independently justify an under. Full current personnel report not verified.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 77.5 — price-sensitive hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Oct29 observed source; see text for provider publication time", "url": "https://fausports.com/news/2026/10/28/football-countdown-to-kickoff-game-8-at-north-texas" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:03:00Z", "name": "North Texas official FAU preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://meangreensports.com/news/2026/10/26/football-unt-hosting-fau-on-espn-in-national-spotlight" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:52Z", "name": "BetSharp named-book observation; book quote date unknown", "url": "https://betsharp.com/ncaaf/game/2026-10-29-florida-atlantic-owls-at-north-texas-mean-green" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Troy at James Madison", "id": "cfb-20261029-troy-jmu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-29T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 10, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF current consensus Troy+19 has substantially less cushion than the earlier+21. SP+ instead projects JMU by23.4. Opposing-model hold; do not carry old+21 value forward.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Troy plus points — current line and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:18:00Z", "name": "JMU official Thursday game operations and kickoff (published Oct 20", "url": "https://jmusports.com/news/2026/10/20/impacts-to-game-day-and-campus-operations-for-thursday-night-jmu-football-game-oct-29" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-hubbard-rush-attempts-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 11, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered suggested rung is over 15.5 attempts at-127, distinct from consensus 16.5. Historical 16.5 row must not be treated as same bet. Role and exact book availability need verification.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Chuba Hubbard over 16.5 rushing attempts", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Panthers official Week 7 usage observed", "url": "https://www.panthers.com/news/inside-the-numbers-buccaneers-at-panthers-in-week-7" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Panthers Monday injury and line context observed", "url": "https://www.panthers.com/news/week-8-monday-injury-report-banged-up-in-a-short-week" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-jacobs-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 12, "reason": "ETR flags a material Jacobs/Lloyd workload split; do not assume Jacobs’ return erases the other back’s routes. The under direction remains supported at the attributed 15.5 threshold. Do not substitute the lower 14.5 consensus shown alongside it. Check the passing-down rotation and protection needs; one extra checkdown can swing a low receiving-yard line. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 15.5; American odds: -114.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Josh Jacobs under 15.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers official Jacobs activation observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-activate-rb-josh-jacobs-dt-jordon-riley-oct-24-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Packers official team statistics observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/stats/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-lloyd-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 13, "reason": "ETR’s workload discussion supports checking a continuing two-back rotation rather than assuming Lloyd has no receiving role. The low receiving-yard under remains a role-sensitive watch. The projection differs sharply from recent receiving output, so verify routes, targets and game-day role; one catch could beat this number. A large provider signal is not an independent calibrated edge. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 5.5; American odds: -117.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "MarShawn Lloyd under 5.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers official Lloyd game log observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/players-roster/marshawn-lloyd/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers official Jacobs activation observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-activate-rb-josh-jacobs-dt-jordon-riley-oct-24-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-lloyd-receptions-price-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 14, "reason": "The earlier price concern remains. An all-books PFF screen still showed the under direction with unfavorable model value, but this reception market was not reproduced under the current DraftKings filter. That is not proof the market was removed. Keep the old quote labeled historical; require a fresh named-book offer and current role before changing its status. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: HISTORICAL Oct27 observation only: BetMGM via authenticated PFF snapshot; not executable; line: 1.5; American odds: -200.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "MarShawn Lloyd under 1.5 receptions — price concern", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers official Lloyd game log observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/players-roster/marshawn-lloyd/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers official Jacobs activation observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-activate-rb-josh-jacobs-dt-jordon-riley-oct-24-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-metchie-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 15, "reason": "Coker was a full estimated participant in the official Oct 27 walkthrough report, superseding the earlier limited estimate; this is not final game clearance. The refreshed attributed under is 15.5, one yard lower than the saved 16.5. That is a less forgiving threshold; do not reuse yesterday's edge or quote. Confirm current receiver availability and routes, since a depth-chart change can overturn a low-volume projection. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 15.5; American odds: -111.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "John Metchie III under 15.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Panthers official Week 7 usage observed", "url": "https://www.panthers.com/news/inside-the-numbers-buccaneers-at-panthers-in-week-7" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-metchie-receptions-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 16, "reason": "The under direction persists, but the refreshed attributed price is plus money and outside the documented favorites-only general band. Keep as research only, not a contest-eligible entry at this quote. A current book receipt and role check are still missing. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 1.5; American odds: 101.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "John Metchie III under 1.5 receptions", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Panthers official Week 7 usage observed", "url": "https://www.panthers.com/news/inside-the-numbers-buccaneers-at-panthers-in-week-7" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:16Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-savion-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 17, "reason": "Savion Williams' earlier receiving-yard quote was not reproduced in the current DraftKings-filtered game/market screen. This is an unresolved quote/availability check, not confirmation that the market was removed or that the player is inactive. Preserve the historical observation and do not promote it without a fresh offer and role verification. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: HISTORICAL Oct27 observation only: BetMGM via authenticated PFF snapshot; not executable; line: 22.5; American odds: -105.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Savion Williams under 22.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Packers official Savion game log observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/team/players-roster/savion-williams/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Packers-Panthers Monday estimated injury report observed", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-car-gb-under", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 18, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF latest consensus total 47 replaces the historical 47.5 screen. Current directional under lean alone is insufficient to validate an alternate. Verify final inactive list; forecasts do not currently establish a severe-wind under thesis. Official Oct28 injury report: Young full/no designation; Love not listed. Both offensive-line losses and defensive absences complicate the total. NWSOct 29 city forecast53 F/7 mph evening is not a severe-wind under thesis. Final inactives remain pending.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 47.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Oct29 observed source; see text for provider publication time", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-list-four-questionable-rule-out-three-vs-panthers-week-8-injury-report" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:51Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:17Z", "name": "Packers official Monday estimated injury report", "url": "https://www.packers.com/news/packers-panthers-injury-report-oct-26-2026" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Tulane at Charlotte", "id": "cfb-20261030-tul-clt-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T19:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 19, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Highest-priority favorite research family: SP+ Tulane by14.7 and82% win probability; PFF also favors Tulane. SP+ current market cell-10.5 differs from PFF consensus-8.5. Review exact sportsbook ML and alternate-spread pricing; market/model calibration, personnel and quote freshness remain gates. ML, spread and alternate are correlated alternatives, not independent edges. Tulane official gamecenter confirms Friday matchup but passing-leader listing is not a QB availability clearance. Charlotte forecast mild/lightwind; full current personnel report unverified, so hold.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Tulane — current line and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Oct29 observed source; see text for provider publication time", "url": "https://tulanegreenwave.com/game-center/23456" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:01:00Z", "name": "Charlotte official 2026 home schedule (observed)", "url": "https://app.charlotte49ers.com/2026Football" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:00Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Kent State at Sacramento State", "id": "cfb-20261030-kent-sac-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-30T22:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 20, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Material model disagreement: PFF favors Kent, but SP+ projects only 5.3-point margin and63% win probability. A roughly-321 ML needs76.25% before vig; the PFF direction alone does not justify that price. Hold pending reconciliation.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Kent State — current line and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Brian Fremeau FEI through Week 8 (observed; provider exact update not shown)", "url": "https://bcftoys.com/2026-fei/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:18:00Z", "name": "Kent State official current schedule (observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://kentstatesports.com/sports/football/schedule" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "Started / archived" }, { "event": "Boston College at Duke", "id": "cfb-20261031-bc-duke-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 21, "reason": "SP+ 75% contrasts with CFR 72%, below the 72.60% required at Pinnacle-attributed -265. Current PFF also does not corroborate Duke moneyline. A likely winner is not necessarily value; resolve model inputs, availability and the executable price before promotion. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; moneyline; American odds: -265.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Duke moneyline — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "Duke current official schedule (observed)", "url": "https://goduke.com/sports/football/schedule" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Illinois at Maryland", "id": "cfb-20261031-ill-md-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 22, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF and SP+ both favor Illinois directionally; SP+ margin 6.3 versus its-2.5 market cell. Preserve quarterback adjustment and personnel gates; no automatic green from two correlated model signals.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Illinois — quarterback-adjustment hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Current public SP+ Week9 sheet observed Oct29; market cells not book quotes", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:16:00Z", "name": "Illinois official Maryland preview and QB update (published Oct 26", "url": "https://fightingillini.com/news/2026/10/26/football-illinois-travels-east-for-matchup-at-maryland" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "SMU at Syracuse", "id": "cfb-20261031-smu-syr-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 23, "reason": "PFF supports SMU, but SP+ 80% versus CFR 69% makes this a price-sensitive model conflict, not a safe favorite. Pinnacle-attributed -347 requires 77.63%. Syracuse’s official recap confirms Angeli returned last week; stale backup assumptions are inappropriate. Final availability and an executable offer remain missing.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "SMU — current price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "SMU official 2026 schedule (observed)", "url": "https://smumustangs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Syracuse official Oct 24 recap (observed)", "url": "https://cuse.com/news/2026/10/24/football-cardiac-cuse-top-carolina-in-overtime" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "SMU at Syracuse", "id": "cfb-20261031-smu-syr-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 24, "reason": "PFF and SP+ point under; SP+ 54.3 contrasts with Pinnacle-attributed under 58.5 (-111). Syracuse’s Angeli returned last week, so confirm current offensive inputs rather than using a backup-era sample. The side and total are correlated. Final availability and executable price remain required; no alternate probability inferred.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under — current total and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "SMU official 2026 schedule (observed)", "url": "https://smumustangs.com/sports/football/schedule/2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Syracuse official Oct 24 recap (observed)", "url": "https://cuse.com/news/2026/10/24/football-cardiac-cuse-top-carolina-in-overtime" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "UAB at South Florida", "id": "cfb-20261031-uab-usf-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 25, "reason": "SP+ 15.1, PiRate 14.7–16.4 and CFR 13.6 margins support investigating USF, but current PFF does NOT corroborate its sampled spread and Burke’s smaller prior margin remains contrary evidence. This supersedes the saved PFF-agreement claim. UAB’s official Oct 26 preview says center Adam Lepkowski is not expected yet; USF identifies Michael Van Buren as current QB. Neither is final clearance. NOAA’s preliminary noon forecast has easterly 12 mph wind. Observed DK ML -305 and alternate spreads -3.5 (-200), -2.5 (-271), -1.5 (-299), +1.5 (-363), +2.5 (-396) are correlated quote references only. No validated cover distribution, robust EV or executable SGP leg. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: -7.5; American odds: -112.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "South Florida -7.5 — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model lines (published Oct 26", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "USF official UAB kickoff announcement (published Oct 19", "url": "https://gousfbulls.com/news/2026/10/19/football-bulls-blazers-to-kick-off-at-noon-on-halloween" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:59Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "UAB at South Florida", "id": "cfb-20261031-uab-usf-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 26, "reason": "Current PFF offers only modest over support. SP+ 50.8 contrasts with CFR 42.9 against observed DK 42.5 (-108): not robust model agreement. UAB’s center absence and final offensive availability matter; NOAA’s early easterly 12 mph forecast is a recheck, not an automatic points adjustment. Observed DK lower alternate overs 31.5 (-444), 32.5 (-421), 33.5 (-360), 34.5 (-301), 35.5 (-269), 36.5 (-246) are unvalued quote references. Higher hit probability from a lower threshold does not establish positive EV. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: 42.5; American odds: -108.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Over 42.5 — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "USF official UAB kickoff announcement (published Oct 19", "url": "https://gousfbulls.com/news/2026/10/19/football-bulls-blazers-to-kick-off-at-noon-on-halloween" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:00:00Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Bowling Green at Western Michigan", "id": "cfb-20261031-bgsu-wmu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 27, "reason": "SP+ projectsWMU by 17.9; PiRate-family 18.1–19.9 and CFR 20.2 also favor a larger margin than third-party Pinnacle-13.5(-110),snapshot 14:00UTC. That gap is not a calibrated ATS probability. NOAA preliminary noon 57F,ESE 7mph,13%rain is not a final weather clearance. Current quarterback/availability screening and an eligible executable offer remain missing; do not infer a -200 to -500 alternate. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: -13.5; American odds: -110.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:39:00Z", "selection": "Western Michigan -13.5 — research hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:06Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:00Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:55Z", "name": "NOAA hourly forecast observed; preliminary", "url": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/GRR/45,16/forecast/hourly" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Bowling Green at Western Michigan", "id": "cfb-20261031-bgsu-wmu-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 28, "reason": "SP+48.8 and CFR 48.7 exceed the 14:00UTC third-party Pinnacle total 44(O-106/U-110). This is a research signal, not quantified EV or a cover rate. Preliminary Kalamazoo noon forecast 57F,ESE 7mph,13%rain,rising 22% later; final availability and weather need recheck. No executable eligible book quote or exact alternate-total rung is verified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: 44; American odds: -106.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:39:00Z", "selection": "Over 44 — research hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:06Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:55Z", "name": "NOAA hourly forecast observed; preliminary", "url": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/GRR/45,16/forecast/hourly" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "California at NC State", "id": "cfb-20261031-cal-ncst-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T12:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 29, "reason": "PFF direction and public SP+ 9.8, PiRate 10.3–12.2 and CFR 11.6 margins support further screening, not calibrated cover probability. NC State fired Dave Doeren and appointed Todd Goebbel interim; do not assume stable pre-change team inputs. Cal says Sagapolutele returned as starter last game, with pass-catcher limitations. Pinnacle-attributed -7 (-110) and ML -265 are secondary references; the latter requires 72.60%, leaving very little cushion against SP+’s rounded 73%. Current availability, weather and exact executable price still gate any promotion. Early NOAA Raleigh forecast is 66F, northeast 8 mph and dry; no deterministic weather adjustment. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: -7; American odds: -110.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "NC State -7 — coaching-regime hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:59Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Marshall at Old Dominion", "id": "cfb-20261031-mar-odu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T13:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 30, "reason": "PFF favors Marshall, but Burke is near a toss-up. Official recaps identify Turner as Marshall’s latest starter with Wilkins relieving him, and Potter as ODU’s first-time starter last week. Older QB assumptions are unsafe. Confirm both current plans, availability, weather and price; directional support is not calibrated value.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Marshall — QB and model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:17:00Z", "name": "Marshall official South Alabama recap (published Oct 21", "url": "https://herdzone.com/news/2026/10/21/marshall-football-grinds-past-south-alabama-20-13" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:17:00Z", "name": "ODU official Louisiana Tech recap and Marshall kickoff (published Oct 24", "url": "https://odusports.com/news/2026/10/24/football-falls-at-louisiana-tech-26-0" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Kansas State at Colorado", "id": "cfb-20261031-ksu-col-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T14:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 31, "reason": "Critical QB hold: KSU officially calls Avery Johnson day-to-day and flags Jacob Knuth’s ankle. PFF/SP+ favor KSU, but Burke’s no-Johnson scenario slightly favors Colorado. Pinnacle-attributed ML -107 versus Colorado -105 reflects a near toss-up. Resolve the actual starter and model scenario before interpreting any apparent bargain; no executable offer or alternate probability is established.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Kansas State — quarterback-sensitive hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:59:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model lines (published Oct 26", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "name": "Current official context rechecked; report date in page", "url": "https://www.kstatesports.com/news/2026/10/26/football-k-state-discusses-colorado-game-during-weekly-press-conference" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:20:00Z", "name": "Kansas State official Colorado preview and kickoff (published Oct 26", "url": "https://www.kstatesports.com/news/2026/10/26/football-k-state-looks-to-bounce-back-at-colorado" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Colorado State at Utah State", "id": "cfb-20261031-csu-usu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 32, "reason": "PFF and Burke favor Utah State, while SP+ is much closer to a toss-up. CSU’s official Hejny return makes its earlier offensive sample less representative. The under thesis does not validate this side. Resolve QB inputs, availability, Logan weather and exact handicap/price.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Utah State — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Colorado State official Hejny return recap (published Oct 24", "url": "https://csurams.com/news/2026/10/24/football-rams-snap-skid-with-first-pac-12-win" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Utah State official game preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://utahstateaggies.com/news/2026/10/26/utah-state-football-continues-pac-12-action-at-home-versus-colorado-state.aspx" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Colorado State at Utah State", "id": "cfb-20261031-csu-usu-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 33, "reason": "PFF supports the under; public SP+ 54.3 and CFR 59.9 are below Pinnacle-attributed 63 (-106 under). CSU’s Hejny return and poor defense are counterweights. NOAA’s early Logan forecast has 75% thunderstorms with only 2 mph wind: precipitation/delay risk, not a high-wind thesis or automatic points deduction. Recheck availability, radar and executable price; no alternate distribution is established. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: 63; American odds: -106.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 63 — QB / weather hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Colorado State official Hejny return recap (published Oct 24", "url": "https://csurams.com/news/2026/10/24/football-rams-snap-skid-with-first-pac-12-win" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:15:00Z", "name": "Utah State official game preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://utahstateaggies.com/news/2026/10/26/utah-state-football-continues-pac-12-action-at-home-versus-colorado-state.aspx" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Florida vs Georgia — Atlanta neutral site", "id": "cfb-20261031-fla-uga-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 34, "reason": "Current PFF does NOT support Florida at its sampled spread, superseding the saved agreement claim. Burke’s smaller Georgia margin is contrary evidence; SP+ projects a larger Georgia win. The neutral venue is Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, not Jacksonville. Current quarterbacks, availability, roof configuration and exact handicap/price remain unverified.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Florida plus points — opposing-model hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:59:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model lines (published Oct 26", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:02:00Z", "name": "Georgia official game notes hub (observed)", "url": "https://georgiadogs.com/sports/2022/8/29/football-game-notes" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Northwestern at Oregon", "id": "cfb-20261031-nw-ore-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 35, "reason": "Current PFF leans Oregon, not Northwestern. Oregon officially says Moore is unlikely to return this season and changed offensive coordinators; replacement-QB roles and adjusted model inputs remain unresolved. Those disruptions do not automatically create Northwestern value. Confirm starter, availability and executable price.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Northwestern plus points — opposing-model / QB hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "name": "Current official context rechecked; report date in page", "url": "https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/26/football-moore-unlikely-to-return-for-ducks-in-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:05:00Z", "name": "Oregon official coordinator change (published Oct 25", "url": "https://goducks.com/news/2026/10/25/football-oregon-relieves-offensive-coordinator-mehringer-of-duties" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Florida International at Liberty", "id": "cfb-20261031-fiu-lib-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 36, "reason": "PFF’s under direction is at 45.5; the retrieved Pinnacle-attributed under 44.5 (-104) gives away a full point and needs its own assessment. Public SP+ 46.4 is contrary evidence while CFR 38.9 points lower. No pooled cover probability is defensible from those means. Verify current quarterback/availability, pace, weather and executable book price; no preferred-range alternate inferred. Official current context identifies Purdie for Liberty and Kohl in FIU season stats, not final medical clearance. Early NOAA forecast is 66F, easterly 3–5 mph and dry, not an independent weather-under case. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: 44.5; American odds: -104.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 44.5 — threshold / model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "name": "Official team or NOAA source observed; report/issuance date in linked source", "url": "https://libertyflames.com/game-center/15416" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Kansas at TCU", "id": "cfb-20261031-ku-tcu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 37, "reason": "Current PFF favors TCU at a different -6 consensus, but public forecasts disagree: SP+ 8.3 versus PiRate 3.2–3.8 and CFR 5.4. Observed Pinnacle-attributed -5.5 (-112) is not interchangeable with -6. The separate ML -225 requires 69.23%; SP+ 70% is only slightly higher and CFR 63% is lower. Do not convert a favorable provider direction into a robust favorite edge. Current quarterback/availability, weather and executable eligible prices remain required. Official Kansas preview identifies Isaiah Marshall and TCU’s Jaden Craig, not an outdated Hoover assumption. Early NOAA forecast is 74–75F, southwest 5 mph and 29% storm chance; no final clearance inferred. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: Pinnacle via AgentBets; observed, not executable; line: -5.5; American odds: -112.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "TCU -5.5 — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:59Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:13Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "UTEP at North Dakota State", "id": "cfb-20261031-utep-ndsu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:35:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 38, "reason": "SP+ 35.6 and PiRate 29.8–34.5 margins contrast with CFR 21.8 against observed DK -24.5 (-102). SP+’s high outright-win estimate is not a cover probability. UTEP’s official prior-game recap says Colson left hurt; current clearance was not recovered. NDSU’s Hayes returned after a prior-game exit, also not a current clearance. Official notes specify indoor Fargodome and 3:35 PM ET actual kickoff after the 3:30 slot. Observed DK alternate spreads -18.5 (-213), -17.5 (-231), -16.5 (-278), -15.5 (-303), -14.5 (-323) remain unvalued quote references; current QB inputs and executable price are required. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: -24.5; American odds: -102.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "North Dakota State -24.5 — model-conflict / QB hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/edit#gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:59Z", "name": "PiRate Week9; one model family, publishedOct25", "url": "https://piratings.wordpress.com/2026/10/25/pirate-ratings-college-football-for-week-9-october-27-31-2026/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:00:00Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/ncaaf" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:39:00Z", "name": "NDSU official Oct27 UTEP preview and kickoff", "url": "https://gobison.com/news/2026/10/27/football-bison-host-utep-saturday-in-first-halloween-home-game-since-1981" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Utah at Cincinnati", "id": "cfb-20261031-utah-cin-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:45:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 39, "reason": "PFF supports Utah directionally, but SP+ 71% leaves little cushion: -250 already requires 71.4%. Spread support cannot validate every moneyline or alternate price. Confirm current quarterback/availability, weather and an executable quote before evaluating value.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Utah — price-sensitive hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:15:00Z", "name": "Utah official Cincinnati preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://utahutes.com/news/2026/10/26/football-no-6-utah-heads-east-to-face-cincinnati" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Utah at Cincinnati", "id": "cfb-20261031-utah-cin-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T15:45:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 40, "reason": "PFF and Burke support Utah’s spread direction. Official notes confirm Dampier played last game, not complete current clearance. The number around a touchdown matters; a point forecast is not a cover probability. Require current availability, weather and executable handicap/juice.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Utah — current line and price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:15:00Z", "name": "Utah official Cincinnati preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://utahutes.com/news/2026/10/26/football-no-6-utah-heads-east-to-face-cincinnati" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Purdue at Penn State", "id": "cfb-20261031-pur-psu-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T16:15:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 41, "reason": "Current PFF highlights Purdue plus points rather than establishing Penn State moneyline value. SP+ and other public strength comparisons do not resolve that disagreement. A spread lean is not an outright win probability. Check availability, weather and actual price; hold rather than manufacture a pooled edge.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Penn State — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:14:00Z", "name": "Penn State official Purdue kickoff announcement (published Oct 19", "url": "https://gopsusports.com/news/2026/10/19/penn-state-football-slated-for-415-pm-kick-against-purdue" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:16:00Z", "name": "NWS State College discussion (issued Oct 27 5:34 AM EDT", "url": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&version=1" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Oklahoma State at Iowa State", "id": "cfb-20261031-okst-isu-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 42, "reason": "PFF’s Iowa State underdog screen conflicts with Burke’s larger Oklahoma State margin. Iowa State officially replaced Raynor with Moberly at halftime last week; the upcoming starter and offensive assumptions need checking. No automatic rebound is assumed. Availability, weather and exact spread/juice remain unresolved.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Iowa State plus points — quarterback-sensitive hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:16:00Z", "name": "Iowa State official Arizona recap and upcoming kickoff (published Oct 24", "url": "https://cyclones.com/news/2026/10/24/football-cyclones-fall-at-no-25-arizona-39-3" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh", "id": "cfb-20261031-gt-pitt-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 43, "reason": "PFF favors Georgia Tech plus points and Burke offers limited corroboration; FEI still rates Pitt higher. This is a price/threshold question, not a claim that Tech is better. The half-point near seven matters. Verify quarterbacks, availability, weather and exact handicap/juice; no alternate distribution established.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Georgia Tech plus points — current price required", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Brian Fremeau FEI through Week 8 (observed; provider exact update not shown)", "url": "https://bcftoys.com/2026-fei/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:15:00Z", "name": "Pitt official Georgia Tech game preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://pittsburghpanthers.com/news/2026/10/26/football-game-week-pitt-hosts-georgia-tech-on-halloween-night" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Ohio State at USC", "id": "cfb-20261031-osu-usc-ml", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 44, "reason": "PFF supports Ohio State, but Sayin is absent and the replacement decision remains unresolved; do not call Fahey confirmed over St. Clair. SP+ explicitly lacks a QB adjustment. The old Circa -250 is historical, not executable. Confirm starter, adjusted model inputs, availability and price; correlated spread support is not moneyline value.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Ohio State — quarterback-sensitive hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:05:00Z", "name": "Eleven Warriors report of Ryan Day radio show (Oct 26; indexed excerpt observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2026/10/164875/ryan-day-expects-ohio-state-to-have-full-arsenal-on-offensive-line-majority-of-injured-players-back-against-usc" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:00Z", "name": "USC official 2026 schedule (observed)", "url": "https://usctrojans.com/sports/football/schedule" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:00:00Z", "name": "Circa Week 9 PDF (dated Oct 26, 8:39 AM; timezone unstated", "url": "https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/9clr2jrvjbdfmn6pe7wzg/AIko5lXuRnsrAP8e7W4i8HE?dl=0&e=2&preview=CFB+Week+9+-+2026.pdf&rlkey=oq3gvnmsmcinl1ixioffnvjcb" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Ohio State at USC", "id": "cfb-20261031-osu-usc-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T19:30:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 45, "reason": "PFF and Burke favor Ohio State, but SP+ explicitly lacks a QB adjustment while Sayin is absent and the replacement is unresolved. A number below seven is not interchangeable with one above it. Require starter confirmation, adjusted forecasts, availability and exact price. This shares risk with the moneyline watch.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Ohio State — quarterback-adjustment hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:05:00Z", "name": "Eleven Warriors report of Ryan Day radio show (Oct 26; indexed excerpt observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2026/10/164875/ryan-day-expects-ohio-state-to-have-full-arsenal-on-offensive-line-majority-of-injured-players-back-against-usc" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:00Z", "name": "USC official 2026 schedule (observed)", "url": "https://usctrojans.com/sports/football/schedule" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:20Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Washington at Nebraska", "id": "cfb-20261031-wash-neb-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T20:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 46, "reason": "PFF’s modest Washington support conflicts with Burke’s larger Nebraska margin. Rhule’s official discussion prepares for Williams or Brown at Washington QB and flags Nebraska’s banged-up backfield. No starter is confirmed here. Resolve those inputs, availability, Lincoln weather and exact price.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Washington plus points — QB and model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:15:00Z", "name": "Washington official Nebraska preview (published Oct 26", "url": "https://gohuskies.com/news/2026/10/26/football-huskies-huskers-to-meet-in-lincoln-on-halloween-night" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:16:00Z", "name": "Nebraska official Rhule QB/injury discussion (published Oct 26", "url": "https://huskers.com/news/2026/10/26/rhule-talks-injuries-previews-washington-game" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Texas State at Boise State", "id": "cfb-20261031-txst-boise-spread", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T22:00:00-04:00", "market": "spread", "rank": 47, "reason": "PFF favors Texas State plus points, but Burke and FEI imply a stronger Boise advantage. NOAA’s early Boise forecast is 51F, NW 3 mph and 62% rain—not the secondary 14 mph wind claim. Rain is context, not a quantified edge. Refresh quarterbacks, availability and exact handicap/juice; hold for model conflict.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Texas State plus points — model-conflict hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Adam Burke Week 9 model (published Oct 26; re-observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://vsin.com/college-football/week-9-college-football-power-ratings-and-projections-for-every-game/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Brian Fremeau FEI through Week 8 (observed; provider exact update not shown)", "url": "https://bcftoys.com/2026-fei/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:16:00Z", "name": "Boise State official event and MDT kickoff (observed Oct 27)", "url": "https://events.boisestate.edu/event/boise-state-football-vs-texas-state" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Texas State at Boise State", "id": "cfb-20261031-txst-boise-total", "kickoff": "2026-10-31T22:00:00-04:00", "market": "total", "rank": 48, "reason": "SP+61.4 and CFR 61.5 suggest investigating the under separately from the existing disputed TexasState side. No current eligible total/juice was independently verified here. NOAA preliminary Boise 8PMMT forecast 51F,NW 3mph,62%showers differs materially from secondary high-wind summaries. Rain is context, not a numericEV adjustment. Require current quarterbacks/availability, book price and forecast recheck; no priced alternate inferred.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:39:00Z", "selection": "Under — conditional total research hold", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:06Z", "name": "SP+ Week9 observed; provider refresh unknown", "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vwoVl-Dxy0es87Z9I1RTvFzr72Lb1fAkREfbLxbK-eg/htmlview/sheet?headers=true&gid=1484575620" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T09:12:00Z", "name": "CFR Week9; updatedOct28 5:12AMET, no injury/weather adjustment", "url": "https://www.collegefootballratings.com/2026/lines/9" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:34:55Z", "name": "NOAA hourly forecast observed; preliminary", "url": "https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOI/134,85/forecast/hourly" } ], "sport": "CFB", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ari-dal-javonte-atd-price-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 49, "reason": "The current attributed touchdown price remains too expensive even relative to the provider's scoring estimate. Recent touchdown streaks do not establish the probability required by this juice. Keep as a price-rejection watch; no independently priced alternative or executable offer is verified. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 0.5; American odds: -280.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Javonte Williams over 0.5 touchdowns — price concern", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "NFL official Javonte workload report observed", "url": "https://fantasy-www.nfl.com/news/javonte-williams-powers-cowboys-blowout-win-over-eagles" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:08:37Z", "name": "Cowboys official October updates observed", "url": "https://www.dallascowboys.com/news/updates-october-2026" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ari-dal-ml", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 50, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Favorite research remains price-sensitive. Public model estimates straddle the-325 breakeven76.47%, so no robust positive EV established. A spread signal cannot be transferred to ML or an alternate without pricing the exact outcome. Direct DraftKings page observed10:44–10:45 ET Oct 29: Dallas-325 / Arizona+260, Nov1 full game. No bookmaker last-update timestamp shown; observation is not quote-time. ETR expects Brissett with Beck dealing with back spasms; Dallas offensive line described as full strength. Love expected back but Allgeier retains passing-down work. Article expectations need final medical confirmation.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Dallas Cowboys moneyline", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:49:15.751Z", "name": "ETR authenticated Oct29 observation; article Oct28, timezone unstated; original synthesis", "url": "https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-matchups-cardinals-at-cowboys-3/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Oct29 observed source; see text for provider publication time", "url": "https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/ari-cardinals-%40-dal-cowboys/34118131" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:20Z", "name": "Current primary-source cross-check observed; retain forecast/report publication times separately", "url": "https://www.nfeloapp.com/games/cardinals-vs-cowboys-box-score-week-08-2026/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ari-dal-spread", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "spread", "rank": 51, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF latest consensus is Dallas-7 rather than earlier-6.5; crossing a key number changes value. Do not present-6.5 as current without sportsbook verification.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Dallas Cowboys -6.5", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:07:00Z", "name": "nfelo Week8 browser UI observed; refresh time undisclosed", "url": "https://www.nfeloapp.com/games/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:39:29Z", "name": "Current primary-source cross-check observed; retain forecast/report publication times separately", "url": "https://www.azcardinals.com/news/as-jacoby-brissett-remains-qb1-carson-beck-remains-topic" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ari-dal-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 52, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF still favors under 54.5 directionally, but ETR Oct 28 Snaps/Pace analysis describes fast tempo and weak defenses. Alt-under pricing must be modeled at exact threshold; retain opposing script risk. Authenticated ETR matchup and pace research favors scoring: weak defenses, quick Dallas tempo and expected Brissett start. Full paid articles were reviewed, superseding the earlier access limitation.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 54.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:49:15.751Z", "name": "ETR authenticated Oct29 observation; article Oct28, timezone unstated; original synthesis", "url": "https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-matchups-cardinals-at-cowboys-3/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:39:29Z", "name": "Current primary-source cross-check observed; retain forecast/report publication times separately", "url": "https://www.azcardinals.com/news/as-jacoby-brissett-remains-qb1-carson-beck-remains-topic" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-atl-tb-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 53, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF latest consensus total 44.5 differs from historical 45.5. Do not reuse old threshold. Directional under lean remains a research signal, not exact-rung EV.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 45.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Buccaneers official current news/Mayfield return context observed", "url": "https://www.buccaneers.com/news/all-content" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:17:38Z", "name": "NFLWeather preliminary forecast observed; not final; Seattle pending", "url": "https://www.nflweather.com/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills", "id": "2026w08-nfl-bal-buf-henry-atd-price-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 54, "reason": "The current DraftKings-attributed touchdown quote is still not supported by the provider's estimated scoring chance. Goal-line opportunity can be strong without making an expensive anytime-TD price good value. Keep on hold pending a better verified offer and current availability. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 0.5; American odds: -235.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Derrick Henry over 0.5 touchdowns — price concern", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:53:06Z", "name": "Ravens official Oct. 26 quarterback update observed", "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/transcript-press-conference-10-26-26" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills", "id": "2026w08-nfl-bal-buf-spread", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "spread", "rank": 55, "reason": "PFF still does not corroborate laying Buffalo -3.5. Its more favorable view of the total does not repair the spread case, and the key margin makes current number/juice especially important. The observed main DK proxy is Buffalo -3 (-120), not the older -3.5 at even money. nfelo currently matches the market at -3.5 rather than offering a strong independent gap. DRatings shows a 5-point margin with Lamar Jackson named. Ravens reporting expects Lamar to return, but expectation is not final clearance. Reprice the exact key-number/juice combination after quarterback status is confirmed. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: -3; American odds: -120.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Buffalo Bills -3", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:53:06Z", "name": "Ravens official Oct26 press conference observed", "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/transcript-press-conference-10-26-26" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:20Z", "name": "nfelo current public board observed; refresh time undisclosed", "url": "https://www.nfeloapp.com/games/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills", "id": "2026w08-nfl-bal-buf-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 56, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF current under 54.5 direction corroborates a lower central-total model, but ETR matchup analysis describes a shootout and Lamar return; defensive absences add upside-tail uncertainty. A padded alternate under is not automatically positive EV. Authenticated ETR Oct 28 matchup analysis favors a high-scoring environment with Lamar returning; Henry faces a missing right guard and a stronger Buffalo run front. This is counterevidence to the under, not a current medical clearance.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 54.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:49:15.751Z", "name": "ETR authenticated Oct29 observation; article Oct28, timezone unstated; original synthesis", "url": "https://establishtherun.com/evan-silvas-matchups-ravens-at-bills-4/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:53:06Z", "name": "Ravens official Oct26 press conference observed", "url": "https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news/transcript-press-conference-10-26-26" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers", "id": "2026w08-nfl-cle-pit-spread", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "spread", "rank": 57, "reason": "Pittsburgh's spread screen is only modest. Paying worse juice or losing a half-point could consume it; quarterback and offensive-line availability remain important before promotion. Leading but thin directional watch. nfelo projects Pittsburgh -4.5 against the observed -3.5; the apparent margin is too small to call robust after estimation and injury uncertainty. DRatings margin 4.1 supports the direction, not calibration. The observed DK quote remains -3.5 (-110). NWS early forecast has light 2 mph wind, so weather does not strengthen the side. No alternate probability is inferred. Observed DK alternate spread quote references: +1.5 (-207), +2.5 (-227), +3.5 (-311), +4.5 (-358), +5.5 (-399), +6.5 (-474). Alternate rungs are unvalued secondary references, not approved SGP legs. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: -3.5; American odds: -110.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:07:00Z", "name": "nfelo Week8 browser UI observed; refresh time undisclosed", "url": "https://www.nfeloapp.com/games/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:08:37Z", "name": "Steelers official injury page still Week7", "url": "https://www.steelers.com/team/injury-report/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:08:37Z", "name": "Steelers Oct25 availability context; not Week8 designation", "url": "https://www.steelers.com/news/steelers-inactives-for-week-7-at-saints" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ind-jax-ml", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 58, "reason": "The current provider screen does not establish value in Jacksonville's expensive favorite moneyline. An under view or an underdog screen cannot substitute for a calibrated favorite win probability. The observed -440 requires 81.48% outright wins. DRatings gives Jacksonville 82.1%, only narrowly above that hurdle before model error; nfelo matching the market does not independently establish value. NWS early kickoff forecast has east wind 15 mph and 57% precipitation with thunderstorms possible. Keep the favorite separate from total and alternate-spread hypotheses; current game-status reports and SGP eligibility remain pending. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; moneyline; American odds: -440.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/nfl" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Jaguars Oct. 26 team update (observed)", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/news/monday-insider-excited-about-getting-back-in-the-building" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ind-jax-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 59, "reason": "The under direction persists. Current offensive personnel and the division matchup's pace assumptions remain unverified here; keep this separate from any confident endorsement of Jacksonville moneyline. DRatings projects 45.4 versus the observed under 46.5 (-110), a modest mean gap rather than a probability edge. NWS flags a meaningful early weather watch: east wind 15 mph and 57% precipitation with possible thunderstorms. Confirm later wind, gusts and delay risk instead of applying an arbitrary adjustment; model does not explicitly incorporate this forecast. Observed DK alternate total quote references: 51.5 (-234), 52.5 (-262), 53.5 (-295), 54.5 (-341), 55.5 (-396), 56.5 (-437). Alternate rungs are unvalued secondary references, not approved SGP legs. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: 46.5; American odds: -110.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 46.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Jaguars Oct. 26 team update (observed)", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/news/monday-insider-excited-about-getting-back-in-the-building" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:17:38Z", "name": "NFLWeather preliminary forecast observed; not final; Seattle pending", "url": "https://www.nflweather.com/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets", "id": "2026w08-nfl-lv-nyj-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 60, "reason": "The current model again favors the under direction. Neither team-side narrative alone proves that result; confirm quarterbacks, offense availability and the exact total/price. Observed DK under 45.5 remains -115, more expensive than the PFF -110 consensus. DRatings total 45.0 is only half a point lower and lists Kirk Cousins/Geno Smith. A tiny directional gap cannot establish robust positive EV, and no alternate hit probability is available. NWS early forecast is 65F, southwest wind 6 mph and 2% precipitation. Hold for updated personnel and exact price. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: 45.5; American odds: -115.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 45.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "NFL official report confirming Raiders Week 8 starter observed", "url": "https://amp.nfl.com/news/raiders-klint-kubiak-sticking-with-kirk-cousins-as-starting-qb-for-week-8-game-vs-jets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Jets official current news and Week 7 availability context observed", "url": "https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/all-news" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-gibbs-atd-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 61, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered anytime-TD snapshot-290 is materially worse than its all-books display. Its model probability does not clear that price. High touchdown probability is not equivalent to value.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Jahmyr Gibbs over 0.5 touchdowns — price concern", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Week 7 recap observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/recap-lions-vs-packers-goff-williams-stbrown-branch" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Oct. 26 availability context observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/key-questions-how-important-was-it-for-lions-to-start-stacking-wins-goff-stbrown-carter" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-gibbs-rush-attempts-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 62, "reason": "The attributed rushing-attempt under is now 21.5 rather than 22.5, reducing the cushion. The projection is close to the new threshold, so a volume or game-script adjustment could erase the signal. Recheck the backfield split and do not copy yesterday's probability. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 21.5; American odds: -106.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Jahmyr Gibbs under 21.5 rushing attempts", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Week 7 recap observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/recap-lions-vs-packers-goff-williams-stbrown-branch" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Oct. 26 availability context observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/key-questions-how-important-was-it-for-lions-to-start-stacking-wins-goff-stbrown-carter" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:16Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-goff-completions-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 63, "reason": "The completion-over direction remains on the current attributed screen. The mean is only modestly above the threshold; target availability and passing volume matter more than a high completion percentage alone. Keep linked Detroit passing-market watches correlated rather than counting them as independent signals. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 22.5; American odds: -103.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Jared Goff over 22.5 passing completions", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Lions official Goff game log observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/team/players-roster/jared-goff/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Oct. 26 availability context observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/key-questions-how-important-was-it-for-lions-to-start-stacking-wins-goff-stbrown-carter" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:57Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-hockenson-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 64, "reason": "The refreshed attributed threshold is 39.5 rather than the saved 37.5. The under direction persists, but verify the exact price and Minnesota target distribution; a higher threshold is not a substitute for checking playing time and route participation. The table's defensive rank alone does not establish value. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 39.5; American odds: -109.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "T.J. Hockenson under 39.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Vikings official Hockenson game log observed", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/team/players-roster/t-j-hockenson/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:39Z", "name": "Vikings official Oct. 26 running-back context observed", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/kevin-oconnell-running-back-health-focus-on-offense-week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-jameson-receptions-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 65, "reason": "The current attributed reception-over price remains plus money, outside the documented favorites-only general band. The projection is barely above the threshold and the signal is price-sensitive. Research only at this quote; confirm role, competing receiver availability and any separately priced eligible alternate. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 3.5; American odds: 117.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Jameson Williams over 3.5 receptions", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Lions official Jameson game log observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/team/players-roster/jameson-williams/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:17:10Z", "name": "Lions official Oct. 26 availability context observed", "url": "https://www.detroitlions.com/news/key-questions-how-important-was-it-for-lions-to-start-stacking-wins-goff-stbrown-carter" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:16Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-murray-completions-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 66, "reason": "The attributed 19.5-completion over has moved from plus money to a favorite price. That removes the earlier odds-band issue but also raises the break-even hurdle; the old value estimate cannot carry over. Expected attempts, scrambles and Minnesota's backfield/receiver availability remain unresolved. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 19.5; American odds: -123.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:37:34Z", "selection": "Kyler Murray over 19.5 passing completions", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:06:00Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule observed", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:21:18Z", "name": "Vikings official Murray game log observed", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/team/players-roster/kyler-murray/logs/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:13:39Z", "name": "Vikings official Oct. 26 running-back context observed", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/kevin-oconnell-running-back-health-focus-on-offense-week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:57Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions", "id": "2026w08-nfl-min-det-spread", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "spread", "rank": 67, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF latest consensus Vikings+3.5 differs from historical+3. Reprice the actual available spread/alternate with current quarterback information; no silent line substitution.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Minnesota Vikings +3", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:00:00Z", "name": "Unexpected Points Oct. 27 Week 8 analysis; model-to-market as of 10 AM ET", "url": "https://www.unexpectedpoints.com/p/week-8-nfl-power-rankings-ac4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:14:00Z", "name": "Vikings official Oct. 26 running-back update observed", "url": "https://www.vikings.com/news/kevin-oconnell-running-back-health-focus-on-offense-week-8" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ten-cin-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 68, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF current main-total lean is under 46.5. Existing alternate56.5 needs its own distribution/price check; no transfer of main-market edge. Source recency and current quarterback status remain gates. Direct DraftKings page observed10:44–10:45 ET Oct 29: under 56.5 -467 / over 56.5 +306, Nov1 full game. Under price breakeven82.36%; no-vig paired market benchmark is not independent true probability. No bookmaker last-update timestamp shown. ETR pace research describes slow Cincinnati tempo but fast, inefficient Tennessee possessions potentially increasing Bengals volume; limited Titans resistance is a one-sided scoring risk, not proof of an under.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Under 46.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:49:15.751Z", "name": "ETR authenticated Oct29 observation; article Oct28, timezone unstated; original synthesis", "url": "https://establishtherun.com/thormans-snaps-and-pace-week-8-7/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Oct29 observed source; see text for provider publication time", "url": "https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/ten-titans-%40-cin-bengals/34118130" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars", "id": "2026w08-nfl-chris-rodriguez-rush-attempts-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 69, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered over 6.5 attempts-116 remains a screening lead. Confirm current backfield role and inactive list before exact-price recommendation.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Chris Rodriguez Jr. over 6.5 rushing attempts", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Jaguars depth chart", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Jaguars running-back role report", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/news/quick-hits-it-starts-up-front" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Jaguars schedule", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/schedule/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals", "id": "2026w08-nfl-gunnar-helm-receptions-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 70, "reason": "The official-hosted Oct20 depth chart lists Helm first at TE and official Week7 notes confirm recent receiving involvement, not a guaranteed target floor. The attributed 1.5 threshold differs from the separate consensus 2.5; use only the quoted market. A small sample and uncertain routes/targets make this a role-sensitive research hold, not a calibrated edge. Final Week 8 medical clearance, executable price and exact DraftKings SGP eligibility remain unverified. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 1.5; American odds: -194.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Gunnar Helm over 1.5 receptions", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Titans unofficial depth chart, as of Oct 20", "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/team/depth-chart" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Titans Week 7 postgame notes", "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-browns-week-7-postgame-notes" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Titans schedule", "url": "https://www.tennesseetitans.com/schedule/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills", "id": "2026w08-nfl-josh-allen-rush-attempts-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 71, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered under 7.5 attempts-141 remains a screening lead. Lamar-related game-script changes and scramble variability require sensitivity analysis.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Josh Allen under 7.5 rushing attempts", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Bills depth chart", "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Bills schedule", "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/schedule/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ty-johnson-rec-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 72, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered under 15.5 receiving yards -115 remains a screening lead, not a validated alternate or live executable receipt.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Ty Johnson under 15.5 receiving yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Bills depth chart", "url": "https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars", "id": "2026w08-nfl-bhayshul-tuten-rush-attempts-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 73, "reason": "The current Jaguars depth chart shares the first RB column between Tuten and Rodriguez; their last-game carry split does not establish a fixed post-bye allocation. The under-carries thesis depends on shared-backfield workload and is related to the Rodriguez over-carries thesis, not an independent second signal. Recent usage does not guarantee a reduction. Verify the actual rotation and availability, then recheck the exact 14.5 threshold and price; the neighboring consensus figure is 15. Final availability, executable price and SGP eligibility remain unresolved. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via PFF; observed, not executable; line: 14.5; American odds: -102.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:42Z", "selection": "Bhayshul Tuten under 14.5 rushing attempts", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:45:42Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Jaguars depth chart", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/team/depth-chart" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Jaguars running-back role report", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/news/quick-hits-it-starts-up-front" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Jaguars schedule", "url": "https://www.jaguars.com/schedule/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams", "id": "2026w08-nfl-lac-lar-ml", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:05:00Z", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 74, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: PFF favors the Rams spread but its consensus moneyline has no positive model edge. Main, alternate and moneyline prices require separate evaluation. Hold rather than assign confident negative EV from one model.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Los Angeles Rams moneyline", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/nfl" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Rams official injury update (observed)", "url": "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-updates-cardinals-week-6-2026-blake-grupe-torn-acl-out-for-season-poona-ford-davante-adams-kobie-turner-trent-mcduffie-raiders" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams", "id": "2026w08-nfl-lac-lar-spread", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:05:00Z", "market": "spread", "rank": 75, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Rams -6.5 remains among the strongest PFF spread directions on the current NFL board. Moneyline and bought points require separate exact-price validation; they cannot inherit the spread edge.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Los Angeles Rams -6.5", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:37:20Z", "name": "nfelo current public board observed; refresh time undisclosed", "url": "https://www.nfeloapp.com/games/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Rams official injury update (observed)", "url": "https://www.therams.com/news/rams-injury-updates-cardinals-week-6-2026-blake-grupe-torn-acl-out-for-season-poona-ford-davante-adams-kobie-turner-trent-mcduffie-raiders" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ne-mia-ml", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:25:00Z", "market": "moneyline", "rank": 76, "reason": "No new provider evidence establishes value in New England's expensive moneyline. Being within an allowed price band is not a positive-EV case; refresh personnel and a shop-able offer. The old -395 snapshot is stale: observed DK proxy now -325, requiring 76.47% wins. DRatings gives New England 79.6%, but this alone is not calibrated truth and nfelo matches the spread market. The same-time Pinnacle no-vig reference is a comparison, not proof of true probability. NWS early forecast includes possible thunderstorms, 84F and east wind 9 mph. Recheck personnel, actual price and timing before promotion. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; moneyline; American odds: -325.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "New England Patriots moneyline", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:52:41Z", "name": "Official NFL schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:00:00Z", "name": "AgentBets Pinnacle snapshot14:00UTC; not direct execution", "url": "https://agentbets.ai/odds/pinnacle/nfl" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Patriots official IR transaction (observed)", "url": "https://www.patriots.com/news/patriots-place-g-alijah-vera-tucker-on-injured-reserve-announce-additional-roster-moves" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Patriots official injury page; Week 7 displayed (observed)", "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/injury-report/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins", "id": "2026w08-nfl-ne-mia-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:25:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 77, "reason": "PFF’s modest under direction is at 44.5; this observed DK 43.5 is less forgiving and requires separate evaluation. Observed DK total is now 43.5 (-102), not the earlier 44.5 (-112); the lower under threshold sacrifices a point. DRatings projects 42.3, but no calibrated distribution is available. NWS early game-hour forecast has 65% precipitation and east wind 9 mph, easing later; do not treat storm risk as a deterministic under adjustment. Final offensive availability remains pending. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: 43.5; American odds: -102.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 43.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:32:58Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/4" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Patriots official IR transaction (observed)", "url": "https://www.patriots.com/news/patriots-place-g-alijah-vera-tucker-on-injured-reserve-announce-additional-roster-moves" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T14:13:36Z", "name": "Patriots official injury page; Week 7 displayed (observed)", "url": "https://www.patriots.com/team/injury-report/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos", "id": "2026w08-nfl-jonah-coleman-rush-yards-watch", "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:25:00Z", "market": "player_prop", "rank": 78, "reason": "Oct 29 refresh: Current PFF DraftKings-filtered suggested rung is under 39.5 rushing yards at -111; consensus 40.5, historical menu 38.5. Do not conflate thresholds. Thin role sample and current depth chart prevent green.", "screened_at": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "selection": "Jonah Coleman under 38.5 rushing yards", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-29T14:46:00Z", "name": "Authenticated PFF Oct29 research observation; not executable book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:35:40Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/player-props?sportsbooks=DraftKings&weekAbbr=8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Broncos activation announcement", "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/broncos-activate-rb-jonah-coleman-and-olb-jonathon-cooper-place-rb-tyler-badie-and-olb-jonah-elliss-on-ir" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Broncos Week 7 recap", "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/news/it-was-one-of-our-more-complete-games-broncos-find-success-in-all-three-phases-in-30-16-win-over-arizona-cardinals" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:44:35Z", "name": "Official Broncos schedule", "url": "https://www.denverbroncos.com/schedule/" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" }, { "event": "Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks", "id": "2026w08-nfl-chi-sea-under", "kickoff": "2026-11-03T01:15:00Z", "market": "total", "rank": 79, "reason": "The Monday under direction persists, but the extra time to kickoff leaves material personnel and weather uncertainty. Do not promote a saved midweek quote as a current executable offer. Observed DK under 46.5 remains -110. DRatings total is 45.1 with Caleb Williams/Sam Darnold named, but a small mean gap is not a hit probability. NWS now supplies an early Monday forecast: around 52F at 5PM PST, north wind 2 mph and 13% precipitation, without a major weather-under case. Official kickoff remains Nov. 2 at 8:15PM EST (Nov. 3 01:15Z), not the 8:20 time on one odds feed. Alternate quotes are archived separately and are not approved selections. Observed comparison quote; provider quote timestamp unknown; not verified executable. Book: DraftKings via BetSharp; observed, not executable; line: 46.5; American odds: -110.", "screened_at": "2026-10-28T14:45:00Z", "selection": "Under 46.5 total points", "sources": [ { "as_of": "2026-10-27T13:55:10Z", "name": "Official NFL Week 8 schedule checked", "url": "https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-8" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:38:22Z", "name": "PFF authenticated observation; provider snapshot, not book receipt", "url": "https://www.pff.com/betting/best-game-bets" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:33:18Z", "name": "DRatings observed; relative refresh only; QB labels checked; not calibrated EV", "url": "https://www.dratings.com/predictor/nfl-football-predictions/upcoming/5" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-27T15:17:38Z", "name": "NFLWeather preliminary forecast observed; not final; Seattle pending", "url": "https://www.nflweather.com/" }, { "as_of": "2026-10-28T14:36:05.641000+00:00", "name": "BetSharp named-book observation; book quote date unknown", "url": "https://betsharp.com/nfl/game/2026-11-02-chicago-bears-at-seattle-seahawks" } ], "sport": "NFL", "status": "hold", "quote_state": "On hold" } ], "published_weeks": [ { "week": "2026-10-26", "title": "Bozo Menu · Oct 29 NFL/CFB research refresh · exact-price validation pending", "revision": 4, "published_at": "2026-10-29T14:50:25.376Z" }, { "week": "2026-10-19", "title": "Bozo Menu · Oct25 maintenance only · no price/PFF/ETR refresh", "revision": 5, "published_at": "2026-10-25T14:44:31.529Z" }, { "week": "2026-10-12", "title": "Bozo Menu · Oct 13 · 92 yellows · model agreement + labeled NFL", "revision": 6, "published_at": "2026-10-13T17:14:04.746Z" }, { "week": "2026-10-05", "title": "The Bozo Menu · Oct 5 expanded scan · 29 new holds · no cleared shortlist", "revision": 3, "published_at": "2026-10-05T15:04:51.808Z" } ], "snapshot": { "checked_at": "2026-10-31T08:26:40.327Z", "source": "https://toto.jkapcar4.workers.dev/bozo/menu.json?week=2026-10-26", "notice": "Static copy checked 2026-10-31T08:26:40.327Z. Refresh is attempted hourly; delays or failures can leave this copy behind the publisher. Compare the week, revision and source publication time. These are saved research observations, not live odds or available bets. Holds and scratches are not active recommendations." } }